Hopefully the new Council, to be elected on Thursday will tackle outstanding public service issues with renewed enthusiasm.
Litter on snickets like Tithe Close is a recurring problem
Despite winter being over, there are still too many potholes on our roads. They are particularly dangerous for cyclists.
Vandalism has also reared its head again. The York Council needs to respond more quickly to damage reports.
Foxwood Lane snicket fencing damaged in March, still not secured
…and it is about time that areas which are littered on an almost weekly basis are tackled. The Council promised mobile CCTV surveillance of problem areas but there has been little evidence of improvement.
Councils, of all political persuasions, often say that their priorities are to improve basic public servce service standards. Hopefully there will be evidence of this after Thursday’s poll.
The Osbaldwick and Derwent ward is home to 8,114 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 83% of residents own their home. 9% rent privately and 6% are social tenants. There are 79 Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are significantly below average. 90.91% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 9.09% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution. In the early part of the last decade redoubtable LibDem Campaigner Janet Greenwood held the Dunnington Ward while Jonathan Morley represented Osbaldwick. Jonathan Morley has now moved on to be the LibDem candidate in Heworth.
At the last election the ward was split between a Conservative – who lived in the Dunnington part of the ward – and Osbaldwick Independent Mark Walters, who had the smallest majority in any ward at that time.
The Conservative Jennie Brooks is standing down to be replaced on the ballot paper by Martin Rowley (who doesn’t live in the ward) and one John Zimnoch. The latter apparently made some injudicious comments on social media a few years ago which appeared to condone drink driving. His chances of election seem slim
The ward on its present boundaries has never elected candidates who don’t live in the ward.
The LibDems, who had consistently put forward Dunnington based candidates in the past, have this time inexplicably nominated someone who lives on the other side of the river Ouse. Their second candidate (Ian Eiloart) does however live in Osbaldwick.
Independent Mark Walters makes a return. He has been a principal opponent of development in the area fighting a losing battle against the Rowntree Derwenthorpe estate. His views are right wing and populist but he has been effective in asking questions which the political establishment would rather not answer. He has a good chance of re-election.
Who will join him is anyone’s guess but the Tories will expect to retain their seat.
Prediction
1 Independent 1 Tory.
Rawcliffe Ward
The Rawcliffe ward is home to 11,946 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 80% of residents own their home. 10% rent privately and 8% are social tenants. There are 164 Council homes in the area. 1.7% are out of work. Crime levels are about average. 88.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 25.9% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution.
The Rawcliffe area was strongly LibDem for many years with first – two time Lord Mayor – Irene Waudby and later her son, Mark, representing the ward.
Labour surprisingly won the seats in 2011 only to be replaced by three Tories in 2015.
The LibDems will be looking to complete their comeback in the area and have managed to nominate a Waudby as a candidate. It is however Sam – wife of Mark – who is one of their flag bearers. Rather surprisingly Mark is contesting the neighbouring Clifton ward in which they both now live. The LibDems have, however, managed to nominate two other candidates who do live in Rawcliffe and this may prove to be decisive, when electors cast their ballots.
Of the 3 existing Conservative Councillors, two are seeking re-election in the ward. Peter Dew, who currently holds the transport policy portfolio for the coalition, also lives in the ward. His “Lendal Bridge” moment relates to a lamentable lack of effective action to repair roads in the City.
He is joined once again by Stuart Rawlings who does not live in the ward. He is understood to have ambitions to be the next Tory Council Group Leader.
The third Tory Councillor Sam Lisle will try his luck in the distant Westfield Ward on 2nd May
Labour support declined substantially in 2015. Somewhat surprisingly, they have imported as a candidate the controversial Dave Merrett, from Micklegate. We doubt that Dave Merrett will ever recover politically from his stubborn support for levying fines on motorists using Lendal Bridge and Coppergate when he was the transport chief.
The Micklegate ward is home to 12,927 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 51% of residents own their home. 34% rent privately and 13% are social tenants. There are 544 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average. 90.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%). 36.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source
Elections
Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year.. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillor were elected. Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as an explanation for his drop in popularity.
Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office. Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where is now lives.
There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.
The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Councils Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker who is already on M. P. Rachel Maskell’s payroll.
The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.
Prediction
2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat.
Huntington and New Earswick
The Huntington ward is home to 12,689 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 70% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 20% are social tenants. There are 104 Council homes in the area. 2.7% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 92.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%). 25.0% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source
Elections
This ward has consistently returned Liberal Democrat Councillors since local government reorganisation in 1995. One of the current representatives, Keith Orrell, is the City’s Lord Mayor. Another is veteran Councillor Carol Runciman who has Executive responsibility for Social Care.
The Tories are fielding unknowns. They either don’t live in the area or declined to reveal their address on the nomination form. This was another ward in which the Tories failed to nominate any candidates in 2011.
This ward has seen a major redevelopment at the Community Stadium site and some concerns remain about parking and traffic in the Monks Cross area.
All in all though, it is difficult to see anything other than another LibDem win in Huntington
The Hull Road ward is home to 15,055 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 48% of residents own their home. 32% rent privately and 18% are social tenants. There are 615 Council homes in the area. 0.7% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 63.6% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. This is worse than any other ward. (York average 88.6%). 9.09% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source
Elections
This ward has been won consistently by Labour. It now encompasses the University of York campus.
The contest is given added interest this time round as one of the Labour victors in 2015 has left the party and is standing as an Independent candidate. Hillary Shephard – formerly a Council employee and shop steward – was on the moderate wing of the Labour Party. Hull Road Labour is now hard left dominated with some students activists believed to be heavily influential. As with all Independents the hurdle that she faces is to mobilise sufficient help to get leaflets delivered and electors canvassed.
One of the Labour candidates, Michael Pavlovic ,won a by-election in 2017. It was held on the same day as the General Election which was used by many electors to protest to Mrs May about her wasting their time.
Unusually two of the Labour candidates live at the same address in the ward. They say they moved to study in the City as recently as 2013.
Prediction
3 Labour seats
Micklegate
The Micklegate ward is home to 12,927 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 51% of residents own their home. 34% rent privately and 13% are social tenants. There are 544 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average. 90.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%). 36.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source
Elections
Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillors were elected. Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as the explanation for his drop in popularity.
Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor, Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office. Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where he now lives.
There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.
The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in Micklegate in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Council’s Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker already on M.P. Rachel Maskell’s payroll.
The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.
The Heworth Without ward is home to 3,933 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 89% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 3% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are significantly below average. 94.12% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 18.75% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
This area had been held by the LibDems for most of the last 20 years and longer. The only interruption came in 2007 when, following a change of LibDem candidate, the late Bill Bennett won the seat for the Conservatives.
His triumph didn’t last long as he sadly passed away a few months later. The resultant by election saw Nigel Ayre elected with a substantial majority.
The ward has been solidly LibDem ever since.
Neither the Tories nor the Greens have found a local candidate while Labour have not revealed where their candidate lives.
Nigel Ayre is popular in the ward and has worked hard to free it from the threat of development. He may be less well regarded in some other parts of the City where he has fronted the Councils, sometimes divisive, leisure polices. He was also one of those, together with Keith Aspden, who was unjustly accused of breaking standards rules.
The LibDems will expect to retain this seat.
Prediction
1 LibDem seat
Holgate
The Holgate ward is home to 12,786 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 23% of residents own their home. 23% rent privately and 12% are social tenants. There are 476 Council homes in the area. 1.5% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 90.32% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 30.0% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
This ward was won by the LibDems in 2003. It has been Labour since 2007
.. & that is the problem for the LibDems both here and in nearby wards with a high proportion of social housing. For many years in York the LibDems were the natural alternative to Labour in the poorer parts of the City. The 2003 success was based on attracting large numbers of votes from Council tenants and those living in smaller terraced properties in the Leeman Road area. The by election campaign, which should have been easy fodder for the LibDem machine, seemed to falter in those areas. Some blame an influx of “Middle England” strategists into the local party for the failure.
The trend figure disguises a freak poor performance for the LibDems in 2015 probably as a result of the General Election taking place on the same day. A by election in February 2018, which saw the LibDems fielding a credible local candidate, saw the parties share of the vote return to 32.3% – but still well behind Labour.
If the party has now got its act together, it should win seats here. It has arguably got the best candidates (local, experienced, committed to the area).
If the lessons have been learnt, then, starting from a strong second place, the LibDems should overhaul Labour. Labour have sacked two of their existing Councillors. They join Sonya Crisp who quit earlier and caused the by election.
In their places are two new youthful candidates only one of whom lives in the ward (The other is one of those who declines to reveal her address).
She is less frank than one of the Tory candidates who admits to living in Beverley. That is an 80 mile round trip and probably some kind of record! Her fellow Tory candidates decline to say where they live.
The Haxby & Wigginton ward is home to 11,923 residents. Average incomes are a little lower than the City average. 88% of residents own their home. 6% rent privately and 5% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 2.0% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 93.6% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 45.1% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
This area had been a LibDem stronghold for decades. However a gradual decline in support resulted in 2 of the 3 seats being won by the Tories in 2015. The remaining LibDem (Ian Cuthbertson) is defending his seat and is joined by two other candidates, both of whom live in the ward.
Things are more chaotic on the Tory side where the, at the time, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Group Tony Richardson was de-selected. He is now standing as an Independent. His abrasive style meant that he won few popularity contests at West Offices. Whether villagers are warmer towards him remains to be seen. There is also one other Independent on the ballot paper (Neil Wyatt) who also contested the seat in 2015 but without, at that time, seriously inconveniencing the vote counters.
The Tories have parachuted two new candidates into the ward. Neither claim to live in the area. One (Joe Pattinson) last surfaced as a by election candidate in the Holgate ward a couple of years ago. The third Tory candidate (Roy Watson-Smith) came a disappointing 5th when contesting the Haxby seat in 2015. He does at least live in the area.
The LibDems have been astute in selecting new candidates who live locally and have backed this up with a revived doorstep campaign. They will expect to regain the seats that they have lost over the years.
Prediction
3 LibDem seats
Heworth
The Heworth ward is home to 14,461 residents. Average incomes are a lower than the City average. 54% of residents own their home. 21% rent privately and 23% are social tenants. There are 1,123 Council homes in the area. 1.7% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly below average. 86.96% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 31.8% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
This area has been Labour for several years. Ward boundary changes make trend comparisons more difficult but in 2015 there was a marked drop in Labour support – mainly to the benefit of the Green Party (although they remained in third place).
This is hard left Labour territory with the existing 3 Labour Councillors – mostly moderates – being ousted. Dafydd Williams, having been a Councillor in Plymouth and then for four years in Westfield, moved over to this ward in 2015. He is understood to be leaving the City. Barbara Boyce has moved on to contest the Fishergate Ward.
Only one candidates has any previous Council experience. Liberal Democrat Jonathan Morley was formerly the representatives for Osbaldwick. He lives in the Heworth Ward. He faces an up hill task in an area where the party’s fortunes have been in the doldrums.
The chances are that inexperienced Councillors will be returned.
Electors in the ward have a couple of novel choices. There is a Women’s Equality Party candidate, while Nigel Fenwick describes himself as the “Socialist Alternative”. If he is to the left of Momentum influenced Heworth Labour Party, then he will find little breathing room. History suggests that fringe candidates do poorly in Council elections in York
There are still huge problems to address in this ward and the task facing the new Councillors will be challenging. Whether the Labour candidates can live up to their self publicity may become clear before the end of the year.
The Fulford ward, which merged with Heslington in 2015, is home to 3,770 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 65% of residents own their home. 22% rent privately and 10% are social tenants. There are 118 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 90.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). Source
Elections
This area has been a LibDem stronghold for decades. The current Councillor, Keith Aspden, is the Deputy Leader of the York Council.
He secured 55% of the vote at the last elections.
There is a strong University influence in parts of the ward.
The main concerns of residents relate to planned development in the area. Work has recently stared on a major new housing scheme at Germany Beck. As wheel as environmental implications residents have voice fears about flooding and traffic levels.
Family and Friends might best describe the candidate selection policies of he other parties. Former Lady Mayoress – to Green Councillor Dave Taylor – Susie Taylor contests her first local poll. The mother of a former Tory Parliamentary candidate carries the torch for the Tories.
Keith Aspden has come through an unfair and protracted attempt by Council officers and some members to smear him with bogus allegations about breaking the Councillors code of conduct. Hopefully he will be stronger from the experience. He can expect to be re-elected.
Prediction
1 LibDem seat
Guildhall
The Guildhall ward is home to 16,650 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 37% of residents own their home. 38% are private renters and 22% are social tenants. There are 788 Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average. (the ward includes the central shopping/pub area) 86.2% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 35.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
A complicated voting trend history with the Greens gradually overhauling Labour to take one of the 3 seats at the last local elections in 2015. A retiring Labour Councillor Brian Watson, who was deselected by his party, contested the ward as an Independent gathering a modest 416 votes. (He is trying his luck in Acomb in the 2019 poll)
The demographics are changing with expensive City centre property prices leading to the gentrification of some areas. This, and the higher General Election turnout, may account for the modest Tory revival in 2015
All parties seem to struggle to find candidates who live in the ward. The Greens and LibDems haven’t found any locals to contest this ward. The Tories have done better. Labour have selected Fiona Fitzpatrick to join their team. She lives in the ward but stood down from her Hull Road seat in 2015.
The Clifton based, and current Labour Council Group Leader, Janet Looker only came third in the popular vote in 2015, when the Greens “First Choice” candidate Denise Craghill topped the poll. Whether the Greens can get their “Second Choice” candidate elected as well this time, will be one of the more interesting results on 2nd May
There is an articulate electorate in area who may demand more from their representatives in the future.
The Dringhouses ward is home to 11,639 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 80% of residents own their home. There are 360 Council homes in the area 1.6% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 86.5% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 40% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
The Dringhouses Ward has traditionally been a LibDem stronghold. The only break in their domination came in 2011 when Labour took two of the seats. Normal service was resumed in 2015 when the LibDems scored a clean sweep with a substantial swing. Ann Reid, who retires this year, secured record breaking support, for a local election, when polling 3104 votes.
The poll is remarkable this year as 7 of the 14 candidates declined to give their address on their nomination forms. One has subsequently confirmed that he lives in the ward. However that means that there are only 3 candidates who have confirm a local home. A rare UKIP candidate makes an appearance and another disillusioned Tory is seeking election as an Independent. .
Development of green spaces is a major issue in the ward and already the Labour candidates seem to have blundered by highlighting the threat to Askham Bog. It was the last Labour controlled Council who, in 2013, first included Moor Lane in their “Big City” Local Plan development proposals. Fortunately that threat has now receded as a revised Local Plan which preserves the Green Belt has been agreed by the coalition.
With Tory support haemorrhaging, it is difficult to see any other result than another LibDem clean sweep in in this ward.
Prediction
3 LibDem seats
Fishergate
The Fishergate ward is home to 10,123 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 48% of residents own their home. 39% are private renters and 10% are social tenants. There are 148 Council homes in the area. 2.3% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 94.7% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 35% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source
Elections
Fishergate is now the Green Party’s York stronghold They have held the seats there for over 16 years.
The Tories did poll well in the area 25 years ago but have been in decline in the ward in recent years, reaching the point in 2011 where they didn’t even put forward any candidates.
Labour support has been stable but well behind the Greens
There are a lot of young student voters in the ward as highlighted by the high proportion of privately rented property.
The Green Councillors have struggled not to become part of the political establishment but recently they took the City’s Lord Mayoralty for the first time and have led campaigns to have ResPark charges reduced!
Labour have nominated a retiring Councillor, and recent Lord Mayor (Barbara Boyce), as a candidate albeit one who represented the Heworth Ward . She and the other non Green candidates look set to be “also ran’s”.
