York Council election results

Will be updated as results come in

and the final result sees Labour retain its 3 seats in the Hull Road ward.

Labour have picked up their expected three seats in Heworth.

Well that will be the icing on the cake for the LibDems. Winning back Rural West – a Tory stronghold – with a huge swing. Means former Tory Leader Chris Steward has lost his seat and the Tories will finish with only 2 seats in total. That is their worst result since 2003 when they were wiped out. The LibDems will finish with 21 seats, 3 short of an overall majority.

Another big win for the LibDems. Tory Leadership hopeful Stuart Rawlings and Transport boss Peter Dew both lose their seats.

No change in the Guildhall ward although sitting Labour Councillor James Flinders has lost his seat the more experienced Fiona Fitzpatrick. Current Labour leader Janet Looker has retained her seat albeit with a small majority.

LibDems retain their 3 seats in Huntington. Up to 16 seats in total now. Keith Aspden in line to be new Council Leader.

LibDems comfortably retain the 4 seats in Westfield.

LibDem gain from the Tories in Strensall. Tony Fisher, who represented the area several years ago, tops the poll. Paul Doughty becomes the only Tory so far to retain his seat. Danielle Mason, wife of Ashley the Councillr for Dringhouses, polls well in her first contest.

.. and there will be tears. Lord Mayor elect Keith Myers loses his Acomb seat to Labour. It happened once before, ironically also in the Acomb Ward, in 1975 when Labour Councillor Peter Gales lost his seat. Peter Gales never made it into the Mansion House. Who will assume the role later in May is anyone’s guess. There may not even be a Conservative with the necessary experience – and inclination – to take over the demanding role. Rotten thing to happen to a hard working Councillor.

Labour retain their two seats in the Clifton Ward. No Independent candidates this time, unlike 2015.

Well we said that it might be a good night to be an Independent. John Galvin retains his seat in Bishopthorpe with a 33% share of the vote with Carole Green as a close runner up. Ironically Carole Green was standing for the Green party. Last time she contested the seat as an unsuccessful Independent candidate. The Conservative vote fell by 28%

…and the LibDems retain the three seats in the Dringhouses and Woodthorpe Ward. One of only two UKIP candidates in York, performs poorly.

Little change in Micklegate although Labour have gained the seat vacated by Independent Johnny Hayes. Greens take the third seat for the second successive election.

and that the first victory for Labour in York today. They retain the 3 seats that they won in 2015 although none of their present candidates were on the ballot paper then. Very poor performance from the Tories and the LibDems who polled much better in last years by election. Other than Westfield, this was the only ward in which the LibDems had a realistic hope of taking seats in the York Central constituency.

Huge 27.5% swing from Tories to LibDems see the party take all three seats for the first time since 2007. On course for he best election result in the City for 12 years.

First surprise of the day and the first seat to change hands. Christian Vassie takes Wheldrake from Independent Suzie Mercer (who was elected in 2015 as a Tory with a big majority. Christian Vassie was a councillor for the ward until 2011.

& the first conservative is elected in Osbaldwick. It was a Tory seat so no real surprise, although the LibDem share of the vote will disappoint them in a ward that they used to hold. Independent Mark Warters retains his seat.

and Nigel Ayre wins very comfortably in Heworth Without. Another sitting Councillor re-elected.

Fishergate election result much as expected with the Greens holding on to the tow seats

Wouldn’t draw too many conclusions from the first two election results. Both small wards with well know local candidates as victors. Turnout better than feared but still well below 50%. May be lower in urban wards. LibDem vote up in one ward, down in the other. Tories major losers (as elsewhere in the country). Maybe better prospects for Greens in Micklegate and Guildhall. We will see.

Big swing to the LibDem Group Leader in Fulford. Has overcome some troubling and unjustified harassment over the last couple of years.

The Comanthorpe Ward has been won by Independent Councillor David Carr. He was comprehensively ahead of the Tory and LibDem candidates. It could be good news for the other Independent candidates, particularly those fighting small rural wards Former Green Councillor Lars Kramm down in 4th place.

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Westfield and Wheldrake wards reviewed

Westfield Ward

The Westfield Ward is home to 14,171 residents. Average incomes are significantly lower than the City average. 57% of residents own their home. 9% rent privately and 32% are social tenants. There are 1,654 Council homes in the area (the largest concentration in the City). 2.5% are out of work. Crime levels are above average. 73.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 38.1% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Westfield has been held by the Liberal Democrats for most of the last 50 years. Labour briefly gained the three seats in their 2011 landslide but equally quickly lost them again. The end for Labour started in the autumn of 2014 when a by-election saw a record swing back to the LibDems and their candidate Andrew Waller. They followed that up by taking all the seats in the 2015 poll with large majorities.

The only blip came when they decided not to re-select Sheena Jackson as a candidate. It is understood that this was for reasons of style rather than policy differences.

The new LibDem candidate is former local government officer Simon Daubeney who doesn’t live in he ward (but lives nearby in Woodthorpe). Indeed it is the first time in 50 years that the LibDems will not be including a Foxwood resident on their slate of candidates . Foxwood is the largest population centre in the ward having about 1/3 of the total electorate. Two of the other candidates do live in Foxwood (Sheena Jackson and Labour’s Louise Corson, although the latter declined to say where lives on her nomination form!).

Labour are also fielding someone who describes himself as a “Management Consultant” and who has moved into the Chapelfields area. Their third candidate is a former Ethiopian refugee currently living in the Holgate Ward. He apparently admires the Ethiopian socialist people’s revolution, which may put him to the left of even most ardent of Corbyn supporters.

The other two parties are putting up “straw” candidates although the Tories have drafted in current Rawcliffe Councillor Sam Lisle, no doubt to give him a salutary send off.

This is one of the poorest wards in the City. It has a very large percentage of social housing. More housing is scheduled to be built on local playing fields and sports grounds. Life expectancy is the lowest in the City and obesity levels are the highest. The LibDems will feel that they have done enough over the last 4 years to merit a further term of office. ….but more will be expected of them if they are to continue in the future.

Prediction

3 Liberal Democrat seats

Wheldrake Ward

The Wheldrake Ward is home to 4,132 residents. Average incomes are significantly higher than the City average. 86% of residents own their home. 8% rent privately and 5% are social tenants. There are 44 Council homes in the area (the largest concentration in the City). 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 83.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 18.2% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Wheldrake was won by the Tories from the LibDems in 2011. It has remained Tory since then. There is an unusual choice of candidates with two of them adopting a peripatetic approach to their party loyalties.

Current Councillor Suzie Mercer was elected as a Conservative. She was one of the 9 Councillors who quit the 14 strong Tory party group, one way or another, in the run up to the election. She is seeking to retain her seat as an Independent.

Equally flexible is the LibDem candidate Christian Vassie who represented the area on the Council between 1999 and 2007. He lost his seat in 2011 and strangely chose to contest the Holgate Ward as an Independent in the 2015 poll. He performed poorly there. He now turns up again in Wheldrake, the ward in which he lives. His application to return to the LibDems must have caused some soul-searching for the candidate selection panel, especially in view of his acerbic comments about party policy in the letters column of the local newspaper.

The Tory candidate, relative unknown Wesley Coultas, lives in the ward in the village of Naburn. This is the smallest of the villages which make up the ward. Wheldrake and Elvington are both much larger communities.

Parochial loyalties can be important in rural areas like this, so Susie Mercer’s links with Wheldrake may be enough to give her victory in what could be a difficult year for the Tories.

Prediction

1 Independent seat

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May

Rural West and Strensall wards reviewed

Strensall Ward

The Strensall ward is home to 8,334 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 80% of residents own their home. 13% rent privately and 6% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 84.2% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 21.1% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Rural West was held by the Liberal Democrats in the last decade. The Tories have gradually increased their share of the vote since then and in 2015 secured both seats.

Retiring Councillor Helen Douglas is standing down, Helen Douglas has had a short but colourful career in local government having started off representing Clifton for Labour before making the long walk across the Council chamber to join the Tories. She is replaced as a candidate by an equally controversial choice in Sian Wiseman who represented the ward following the 2011 elections. However, she was another who left the Conservative Group preferring to sit as an Independent following a controversy involving her, family owned, development land which might have been affected by an emerging Local Plan. After sitting out the last 4 years she returns to the the Tory fold.. Sian Wiseman is well known locally but whether local electors have forgotten and forgiven her dalliance remains to be seen. The other retiring Tory Councillor Paul Doughty is seeking re-election. He also lives in the ward.

The main challenge will come from well know local LibDem candidate Tony Fisher. He is a former Councillor for the area and polled strongly when contesting the ward in 2015. He is a trenchant supporter of the Green Belt and is likely to garner a few extra votes this time round.

Prediction

1 LibDem 1 Tory

Rural West Ward

The Rural West ward is home to 7,963 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 86% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 5% are social tenants. There are 154 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 86.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 16.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution.

Rural West was held by the Liberal Democrats in the last decade. The Tories have gradually increased their share of the vote since then and in 2015 secured both seats. One is held by the retiring Council Leader Ian Gillies, who is standing down after 12 years. He is replaced by an even older candidate in Robin Garland who was a feature of the local, political scene until about 30 years ago. The other seat is held by arch Brexiteer Chris Steward who lives some distance away in the Micklegate ward.

An Independent did win one seat in the ward briefly over 12 years ago. There are no Independent candidates standing this year.

The challengers will be the LibDems. Their main hope will rest with Ann Hook who lives locally. The second LibDem candidates (James Barker) holds the unfortunate distinction of being the only one of the party’s candidates who declined to say on his nomination form whether he lived in the ward..

If the predicted meltdown in Tory support actually happens, then the beneficiary is likely to be a LibDem candidate,

Prediction

1 LibDem 1 Tory

So who will win the York Council elections

Osbaldwick/Derwent and Rawcliffe wards reviewed

Osbaldwick and Derwent Ward

The Osbaldwick and Derwent ward is home to 8,114 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 83% of residents own their home. 9% rent privately and 6% are social tenants. There are 79 Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are significantly below average. 90.91% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 9.09% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution. In the early part of the last decade redoubtable LibDem Campaigner Janet Greenwood held the Dunnington Ward while Jonathan Morley represented Osbaldwick. Jonathan Morley has now moved on to be the LibDem candidate in Heworth.

At the last election the ward was split between a Conservative – who lived in the Dunnington part of the ward – and Osbaldwick Independent Mark Walters, who had the smallest majority in any ward at that time.

The Conservative Jennie Brooks is standing down to be replaced on the ballot paper by Martin Rowley (who doesn’t live in the ward) and one John Zimnoch. The latter apparently made some injudicious comments on social media a few years ago which appeared to condone drink driving. His chances of election seem slim

The ward on its present boundaries has never elected candidates who don’t live in the ward.

The LibDems, who had consistently put forward Dunnington based candidates in the past, have this time inexplicably nominated someone who lives on the other side of the river Ouse. Their second candidate (Ian Eiloart) does however live in Osbaldwick.

Independent Mark Walters makes a return. He has been a principal opponent of development in the area fighting a losing battle against the Rowntree Derwenthorpe estate. His views are right wing and populist but he has been effective in asking questions which the political establishment would rather not answer. He has a good chance of re-election.

Who will join him is anyone’s guess but the Tories will expect to retain their seat.

Prediction

1 Independent 1 Tory.

Rawcliffe Ward

The Rawcliffe ward is home to 11,946 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 80% of residents own their home. 10% rent privately and 8% are social tenants. There are 164 Council homes in the area. 1.7% are out of work. Crime levels are about average. 88.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 25.9% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution.

The Rawcliffe area was strongly LibDem for many years with first – two time Lord Mayor – Irene Waudby and later her son, Mark, representing the ward.

Labour surprisingly won the seats in 2011 only to be replaced by three Tories in 2015.

The LibDems will be looking to complete their comeback in the area and have managed to nominate a Waudby as a candidate. It is however Sam – wife of Mark – who is one of their flag bearers. Rather surprisingly Mark is contesting the neighbouring Clifton ward in which they both now live. The LibDems have, however, managed to nominate two other candidates who do live in Rawcliffe and this may prove to be decisive, when electors cast their ballots.

Of the 3 existing Conservative Councillors, two are seeking re-election in the ward. Peter Dew, who currently holds the transport policy portfolio for the coalition, also lives in the ward. His “Lendal Bridge” moment relates to a lamentable lack of effective action to repair roads in the City.

He is joined once again by Stuart Rawlings who does not live in the ward. He is understood to have ambitions to be the next Tory Council Group Leader.

The third Tory Councillor Sam Lisle will try his luck in the distant Westfield Ward on 2nd May

Labour support declined substantially in 2015. Somewhat surprisingly, they have imported as a candidate the controversial Dave Merrett, from Micklegate. We doubt that Dave Merrett will ever recover politically from his stubborn support for levying fines on motorists using Lendal Bridge and Coppergate when he was the transport chief.

Prediction

2 LibDem 1 Tory

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Huntington and Micklegate Wards reviewed

Micklegate

The Micklegate ward is home to 12,927 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 51% of residents own their home. 34% rent privately and 13% are social tenants. There are 544 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average. 90.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%). 36.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source

Elections

Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year.. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillor were elected. Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as an explanation for his drop in popularity.

Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office. Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where is now lives.

There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.

The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Councils Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker who is already on M. P. Rachel Maskell’s payroll.

The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat.

Huntington and New Earswick

The Huntington ward is home to 12,689 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 70% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 20% are social tenants. There are 104 Council homes in the area. 2.7% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 92.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%). 25.0% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source

Elections

This ward has consistently returned Liberal Democrat Councillors since local government reorganisation in 1995. One of the current representatives, Keith Orrell, is the City’s Lord Mayor. Another is veteran Councillor Carol Runciman who has Executive responsibility for Social Care.

The Tories are fielding unknowns. They either don’t live in the area or declined to reveal their address on the nomination form. This was another ward in which the Tories failed to nominate any candidates in 2011.

This ward has seen a major redevelopment at the Community Stadium site and some concerns remain about parking and traffic in the Monks Cross area.

All in all though, it is difficult to see anything other than another LibDem win in Huntington

Prediction

3 LibDem seats

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Hull Road and Micklegate Ward reviews

Hull Road

The Hull Road ward is home to 15,055 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 48% of residents own their home. 32% rent privately and 18% are social tenants. There are 615 Council homes in the area. 0.7% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 63.6% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. This is worse than any other ward. (York average 88.6%). 9.09% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source

Elections

This ward has been won consistently by Labour. It now encompasses the University of York campus.

The contest is given added interest this time round as one of the Labour victors in 2015 has left the party and is standing as an Independent candidate. Hillary Shephard – formerly a Council employee and shop steward – was on the moderate wing of the Labour Party. Hull Road Labour is now hard left dominated with some students activists believed to be heavily influential. As with all Independents the hurdle that she faces is to mobilise sufficient help to get leaflets delivered and electors canvassed.

One of the Labour candidates, Michael Pavlovic ,won a by-election in 2017. It was held on the same day as the General Election which was used by many electors to protest to Mrs May about her wasting their time.

Unusually two of the Labour candidates live at the same address in the ward. They say they moved to study in the City as recently as 2013.

Prediction

3 Labour seats

Micklegate

Elections

Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillors were elected. Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as the explanation for his drop in popularity.

Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor, Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office. Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where he now lives.

There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.

The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in Micklegate in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Council’s Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker already on M.P. Rachel Maskell’s payroll.

The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat.

So who will win the York Council elections

Heworth Without and Holgate reviewed

Heworth Without

The Heworth Without ward is home to 3,933 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 89% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 3% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are significantly below average. 94.12% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 18.75% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

This area had been held by the LibDems for most of the last 20 years and longer. The only interruption came in 2007 when, following a change of LibDem candidate, the late Bill Bennett won the seat for the Conservatives.

His triumph didn’t last long as he sadly passed away a few months later. The resultant by election saw Nigel Ayre elected with a substantial majority.

The ward has been solidly LibDem ever since.

Neither the Tories nor the Greens have found a local candidate while Labour have not revealed where their candidate lives.

Nigel Ayre is popular in the ward and has worked hard to free it from the threat of development. He may be less well regarded in some other parts of the City where he has fronted the Councils, sometimes divisive, leisure polices. He was also one of those, together with Keith Aspden, who was unjustly accused of breaking standards rules.

The LibDems will expect to retain this seat.

Prediction

1 LibDem seat

Holgate

The Holgate ward is home to 12,786 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 23% of residents own their home. 23% rent privately and 12% are social tenants. There are 476 Council homes in the area. 1.5% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 90.32% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 30.0% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

This ward was won by the LibDems in 2003. It has been Labour since 2007

.. & that is the problem for the LibDems both here and in nearby wards with a high proportion of social housing. For many years in York the LibDems were the natural alternative to Labour in the poorer parts of the City. The 2003 success was based on attracting large numbers of votes from Council tenants and those living in smaller terraced properties in the Leeman Road area. The by election campaign, which should have been easy fodder for the LibDem machine, seemed to falter in those areas. Some blame an influx of “Middle England” strategists into the local party for the failure.

The trend figure disguises a freak poor performance for the LibDems in 2015 probably as a result of the General Election taking place on the same day. A by election in February 2018, which saw the LibDems fielding a credible local candidate, saw the parties share of the vote return to 32.3% – but still well behind Labour.

If the party has now got its act together, it should win seats here. It has arguably got the best candidates (local, experienced, committed to the area).

If the lessons have been learnt, then, starting from a strong second place, the LibDems should overhaul Labour. Labour have sacked two of their existing Councillors. They join Sonya Crisp who quit earlier and caused the by election.

In their places are two new youthful candidates only one of whom lives in the ward (The other is one of those who declines to reveal her address).

She is less frank than one of the Tory candidates who admits to living in Beverley. That is an 80 mile round trip and probably some kind of record! Her fellow Tory candidates decline to say where they live.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 LibDem seat

So who will win the York Council elections?

Haxby and Heworth wards reviewed

Haxby and Wigginton

The Haxby & Wigginton ward is home to 11,923 residents. Average incomes are a little lower than the City average. 88% of residents own their home. 6% rent privately and 5% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 2.0% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 93.6% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 45.1% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

This area had been a LibDem stronghold for decades. However a gradual decline in support resulted in 2 of the 3 seats being won by the Tories in 2015. The remaining LibDem (Ian Cuthbertson) is defending his seat and is joined by two other candidates, both of whom live in the ward.

Things are more chaotic on the Tory side where the, at the time, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Group Tony Richardson was de-selected. He is now standing as an Independent. His abrasive style meant that he won few popularity contests at West Offices. Whether villagers are warmer towards him remains to be seen. There is also one other Independent on the ballot paper (Neil Wyatt) who also contested the seat in 2015 but without, at that time, seriously inconveniencing the vote counters.

The Tories have parachuted two new candidates into the ward. Neither claim to live in the area. One (Joe Pattinson) last surfaced as a by election candidate in the Holgate ward a couple of years ago. The third Tory candidate (Roy Watson-Smith) came a disappointing 5th when contesting the Haxby seat in 2015. He does at least live in the area.

The LibDems have been astute in selecting new candidates who live locally and have backed this up with a revived doorstep campaign. They will expect to regain the seats that they have lost over the years.

Prediction

3 LibDem seats

Heworth

The Heworth ward is home to 14,461 residents. Average incomes are a lower than the City average. 54% of residents own their home. 21% rent privately and 23% are social tenants. There are 1,123 Council homes in the area. 1.7% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly below average. 86.96% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 31.8% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

This area has been Labour for several years. Ward boundary changes make trend comparisons more difficult but in 2015 there was a marked drop in Labour support – mainly to the benefit of the Green Party (although they remained in third place).

This is hard left Labour territory with the existing 3 Labour Councillors – mostly moderates – being ousted. Dafydd Williams, having been a Councillor in Plymouth and then for four years in Westfield, moved over to this ward in 2015. He is understood to be leaving the City. Barbara Boyce has moved on to contest the Fishergate Ward.

Only one candidates has any previous Council experience. Liberal Democrat Jonathan Morley was formerly the representatives for Osbaldwick. He lives in the Heworth Ward. He faces an up hill task in an area where the party’s fortunes have been in the doldrums.

The chances are that inexperienced Councillors will be returned.

Electors in the ward have a couple of novel choices. There is a Women’s Equality Party candidate, while Nigel Fenwick describes himself as the “Socialist Alternative”. If he is to the left of Momentum influenced Heworth Labour Party, then he will find little breathing room. History suggests that fringe candidates do poorly in Council elections in York

There are still huge problems to address in this ward and the task facing the new Councillors will be challenging. Whether the Labour candidates can live up to their self publicity may become clear before the end of the year.

Prediction

3 Labour seats

So who will win the York Council Elections?

Fulford and Guildhall wards reviewed

Fulford and Heslington

The Fulford ward, which merged with Heslington in 2015, is home to 3,770 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 65% of residents own their home. 22% rent privately and 10% are social tenants. There are 118 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 90.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). Source

Elections

This area has been a LibDem stronghold for decades. The current Councillor, Keith Aspden, is the Deputy Leader of the York Council.

He secured 55% of the vote at the last elections.

There is a strong University influence in parts of the ward.

The main concerns of residents relate to planned development in the area. Work has recently stared on a major new housing scheme at Germany Beck. As wheel as environmental implications residents have voice fears about flooding and traffic levels.

Family and Friends might best describe the candidate selection policies of he other parties. Former Lady Mayoress – to Green Councillor Dave Taylor – Susie Taylor contests her first local poll. The mother of a former Tory Parliamentary candidate carries the torch for the Tories.

Keith Aspden has come through an unfair and protracted attempt by Council officers and some members to smear him with bogus allegations about breaking the Councillors code of conduct. Hopefully he will be stronger from the experience. He can expect to be re-elected.

Prediction

1 LibDem seat

Guildhall

The Guildhall ward is home to 16,650 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 37% of residents own their home. 38% are private renters and 22% are social tenants. There are 788 Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average. (the ward includes the central shopping/pub area) 86.2% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 35.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

A complicated voting trend history with the Greens gradually overhauling Labour to take one of the 3 seats at the last local elections in 2015. A retiring Labour Councillor Brian Watson, who was deselected by his party, contested the ward as an Independent gathering a modest 416 votes. (He is trying his luck in Acomb in the 2019 poll)

The demographics are changing with expensive City centre property prices leading to the gentrification of some areas. This, and the higher General Election turnout, may account for the modest Tory revival in 2015

All parties seem to struggle to find candidates who live in the ward. The Greens and LibDems haven’t found any locals to contest this ward. The Tories have done better. Labour have selected Fiona Fitzpatrick to join their team. She lives in the ward but stood down from her Hull Road seat in 2015.

The Clifton based, and current Labour Council Group Leader, Janet Looker only came third in the popular vote in 2015, when the Greens “First Choice” candidate Denise Craghill topped the poll. Whether the Greens can get their “Second Choice” candidate elected as well this time, will be one of the more interesting results on 2nd May

There is an articulate electorate in area who may demand more from their representatives in the future.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat

So who will win the York Council elections?

Dringhouses and Fishergate wards reviewed

Dringhouses and Woodthorpe

The Dringhouses ward is home to 11,639 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 80% of residents own their home. There are 360 Council homes in the area 1.6% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 86.5% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 40% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

The Dringhouses Ward has traditionally been a LibDem stronghold. The only break in their domination came in 2011 when Labour took two of the seats. Normal service was resumed in 2015 when the LibDems scored a clean sweep with a substantial swing. Ann Reid, who retires this year, secured record breaking support, for a local election, when polling 3104 votes.

The poll is remarkable this year as 7 of the 14 candidates declined to give their address on their nomination forms. One has subsequently confirmed that he lives in the ward. However that means that there are only 3 candidates who have confirm a local home. A rare UKIP candidate makes an appearance and another disillusioned Tory is seeking election as an Independent. .

Development of green spaces is a major issue in the ward and already the Labour candidates seem to have blundered by highlighting the threat to Askham Bog. It was the last Labour controlled Council who, in 2013, first included Moor Lane in their “Big City” Local Plan development proposals. Fortunately that threat has now receded as a revised Local Plan which preserves the Green Belt has been agreed by the coalition.

With Tory support haemorrhaging, it is difficult to see any other result than another LibDem clean sweep in in this ward.

Prediction

3 LibDem seats

Fishergate

The Fishergate ward is home to 10,123 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 48% of residents own their home. 39% are private renters and 10% are social tenants. There are 148 Council homes in the area. 2.3% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 94.7% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 35% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Fishergate is now the Green Party’s York stronghold They have held the seats there for over 16 years.

The Tories did poll well in the area 25 years ago but have been in decline in the ward in recent years, reaching the point in 2011 where they didn’t even put forward any candidates.

Labour support has been stable but well behind the Greens

There are a lot of young student voters in the ward as highlighted by the high proportion of privately rented property.

The Green Councillors have struggled not to become part of the political establishment but recently they took the City’s Lord Mayoralty for the first time and have led campaigns to have ResPark charges reduced!

Labour have nominated a retiring Councillor, and recent Lord Mayor (Barbara Boyce), as a candidate albeit one who represented the Heworth Ward . She and the other non Green candidates look set to be “also ran’s”.

Prediction

2 Green seats