How many will lose their jobs in York?

Post COVID-19 economic recovery plans

The Council has revealed that its forecast financial deficit for the current year is around £3.9 million. However, the biggest potential hit on its finances comes from a forecast £16 million loss of Business Rate and Council Tax income. This would be the result of businesses closing and unemployment rising.

The Council has still not identified how expenditure savings may be made nor has it attempted to reduce interest charge payments by trimming its capital programme.

The  York Council economic development  report says how it plans to help the York economy recover from the ravages of lock-down. It updates a previous plan which was criticised for a lack of identified actions, targets, and milestones.

The report says that the impact of the COVID lock down has varied across sectors but is most significant where “serving customers face-to-face is at the heart of the business model – retail, hospitality, cultural attractions and personal services”.

One aspect to the report which may cause concern is the lack of clarity on the medium-term impact on unemployment in the City. It highlights the view of the Local Enterprise Partnership which forecasts the loss of “17,500 jobs, including 6,500 in tourism and 2,400 in retail”. If true, then York would go from having almost full employment to a record 15% level.

The report says that around 15,000 people currently work in the care sector in York.

An alternative forecast, from Oxford Economics, says that if a vaccine is rolled out in 2020 then there will be a  swift return to full employment. A core (more likely) forecast, based on re-openings on the current timetable and gradual lifting of all restrictions, suggests that employment will continue to grow in York despite the impact of the pandemic.

Only a second wave, and renewed lockdowns in autumn 2020, would result in permanent losses of around 3900 jobs.

So it seems, like the population as a whole, the Council doesn’t know what will happen next. The report concludes “What we are already seeing is sharp increases in benefits claims, and we need to plan for at least a short-term spike in job losses”.

Against that background it is possible to have some sympathy for the Council as they decide their short term economic recovery strategy.

One of the few measurable actions arising from the report is a request to central government for a business support grant of £15 million (possibly £10 million depending on which paragraph of the report you read, 51 or 60).

The council will also ask for £10 million for skills training.

Mostly the 1 year plan though is “talking”, “developing”, “working with”, “lobbying” and “facilitating”.

NB. The Council has revealed details of some of its visitor marketing plans. . As reported yesterday, £100,000 will be spent on marketing over the next 5 months.

York Council’s visitor economy plans

£100K proposed investment for new campaign to support York’s Tourism Industry

City of York Council and Make It York are rolling out a new six-month tourism strategy to promote the strengths of the city.

The strategy will encourage residents and visitors to enjoy the many unique experiences the city has to offer.

City of York Council are supporting the campaign with a proposed investment of £100K for targeted marketing activity, which is designed to boost resident and visitor experience , in order to support York’s tourism and leisure industry.  The proposal is to be discussed at a meeting on the Council’s Executive on 23 July 2020.

The strategy, elements of which are already in operation through City of York Council’s ‘Let’s Be York campaign’ and Make It York’s new ‘Feel at Home in York’ campaign, will focus on reenergising the city and telling the story of York’s diverse history.

The £100K investment will include targeted advertising, including digital and radio, press initiatives and new digital content, photography and video, and the curation of a unique programme of events throughout the summer and autumn of 2020. The strategy focuses on building confidence in the city as a safe and welcoming place for residents and visitors to enjoy, as well as promoting York’s special character.

The launch of this new tourism campaign, which is designed to support businesses over the next six months, is the latest in a series of activities to assist businesses across the city in adapting to the challenges posed by Covid-19. Support during the pandemic included business grants, rates relief, advice on funding, skills training and a series of key sector roundtables – as well as ongoing conversations with national government to lobby on behalf of York’s business community for further support.

The proposed activity will launch with a special ‘Our Heroes Welcome’ from 1 August for Yorkshire Day – a week to thank the incredible commitment of the city’s key workers, with a special celebratory cruise held in partnership with City Cruises York with more information will follow.

The tourism marketing strategy is part of the council’s response to support the city recovery from the economic impacts of Covid-19.   The council will discuss plans to deliver a short term one year economic recovery plan, together with the one Year Transport and Place plan already underway at the Executive meeting on 24 July 2020.  More information is here (link)

One of the core elements of the strategy is working collaboratively with businesses including attractions, retail and hospitality to create unique and special experiences designed to attract targeted audiences to the city, and keep them returning to the city. The recovery campaign activity will continue to prioritise public health, aligning with government advice as this develops over the coming months. 

The campaign aims to attract residents as the key audience, as well as visitors from the surrounding regions. Utilising data and insights from locals, businesses and visitors, the plan of activity will continue to be shaped by feedback gathered over the coming months.

The move comes at the same time as the Council confirmed in a response to a Freedom of Information request that it had spent £4.7 million with Make It York during the last 5 years.