A report on how York is fairing during the pandemic paints a mixed picture.
Unemployment numbers have soared to over 5000 with the highest percentage to be found in the Westfield ward where 540 (6.1%) are now out of work.
Front Street regeneration delays
This includes 120 young people aged between 16 and 24.
Perhaps not surprisingly, this has led to several attempts to establish new businesses in the area
There is a major disappointment for the Front Street area where the much-anticipated economic regeneration review has been delayed again. The recent lockdown is blamed.
It seems that the proposals aimed at revitalising the area will not now be available until next summer.
It is another reverse for the economically poorest part of the City, which has seen many formal and informal leisure facilities close in recent years.
Background figures tracking the trend in economic activity in the City can be founds by clicking here
Figures for the City’s “visitor economy” can be found here click
A report which looks at how the York economy has fared since the pandemic started has been published today. It looks mainly at the City centre although it markedly fails to reveal traffic levels on, and within, the inner ring road.
Instead it highlights trends on major trunk routes. Generally, these reveal that traffic levels have risen to about 90% of the levels seen in February (which itself is normally the quietest month of the year in the City)
Car park occupancy levels are very high. Castle, Marygate, Bootham Bar and the Esplanade have reached record high levels.
This bears out the conclusion in the report that visitors from outside the City have been coming in large numbers and they mostly drive to City centre car parks.
Park and Ride numbers have slumped along with public transport passengers more generally. Both are down to 30% of the numbers seen in February. Clearly COVID fears account for this change in transport preferences.
The figures provided also don’t provide any information on the numbers using two wheeled transport. Given the clamour for more cycle lanes, that is surprising. Elsewhere in the country the numbers cycling are up slightly (but not when it is raining!).
There may be a lack of data available to the Council on transport patterns.
They admit that only 2 of the “footfall” cameras are currently working and that a replacement system has yet to be implemented. The available data suggests that footfall is around 20% down on the equivalent period last year. The report claims though that spend per head is comparable to last summer.
The numbers claiming out of work benefits has trebled. It may get worse when the “furlough” scheme comes to an end. More stats can be viewed by clicking here
The Council says that it is setting up a “board “ to supervise training initiatives which will counter increasing unemployment.
It is right to focus on education as this will pave the future for the City. It is, however, unlikely that a 20 member committee will be sufficiently agile to make much difference.
The Council approach is likely to be criticised for overly focusing on the City centre. Out of town shopping destinations like those along the ring road don’t get a mention and even local centres at Bishopthorpe Road, Front Street and Haxby merit only a passing review. No footfall figures are provided nor are empty commercial priority trends analysed. In the case of Front Street a promised economic review by a consultant was shelved during the lockdown.
Front Street lies in the Westfield Ward which has the highest unemployment rate in the City
The Council has revealed that its forecast financial deficit for the current year is around £3.9 million. However, the biggest potential hit on its finances comes from a forecast £16 million loss of Business Rate and Council Tax income. This would be the result of businesses closing and unemployment rising.
The Council has still not identified how expenditure savings may be made nor has it attempted to reduce interest charge payments by trimming its capital programme.
The York Council economic development report says how it plans to help the York economy recover from the ravages of lock-down. It updates a previous plan which was criticised for a lack of identified actions, targets, and milestones.
The report says that the impact of the COVID lock down has varied across sectors but is most significant where “serving customers face-to-face is at the heart of the business model – retail, hospitality, cultural attractions and personal services”.
One aspect to the report which may cause concern is the lack of clarity on the medium-term impact on unemployment in the City. It highlights the view of the Local Enterprise Partnership which forecasts the loss of “17,500 jobs, including 6,500 in tourism and 2,400 in retail”. If true, then York would go from having almost full employment to a record 15% level.
The report says that around 15,000 people currently work in the care sector in York.
An alternative forecast, from Oxford Economics, says that if a vaccine is rolled out in 2020 then there will be a swift return to full employment. A core (more likely) forecast, based on re-openings on the current timetable and gradual lifting of all restrictions, suggests that employment will continue to grow in York despite the impact of the pandemic.
Only a second wave, and renewed lockdowns in autumn 2020, would result in permanent losses of around 3900 jobs.
So it seems, like the population as a whole, the Council doesn’t know what will happen next. The report concludes “What we are already seeing is sharp increases in benefits claims, and we need to plan for at least a short-term spike in job losses”.
Against that background it is possible to have some sympathy for the Council as they decide their short term economic recovery strategy.
One of the few measurable actions arising from the report is a request to central government for a business support grant of £15 million (possibly £10 million depending on which paragraph of the report you read, 51 or 60).
Mostly the1 year plan though is “talking”, “developing”, “working with”, “lobbying” and “facilitating”.
NB. The Council has revealed details of some of its visitor marketing plans. . As reported yesterday, £100,000 will be spent on marketing over the next 5 months.
Anyone hoping that the Councils postCOVID strategy document would be a stimulating read may be disappointed.
A series of papers have now been published which are long on hyperbole but very short on tangible actions
Those hoping for a series of initiatives, incorporating measurable deliverables and with specific key milestones, will search in vain amongst the papers for the Executive meeting which is taking place on 25th June.
The expectation was that clear actions would be identified to take the City through the next 3 months at least. Only the half-hearted free parking initiative fits into that narrative.
Nor has any more up to date information been provided on the nature of the Councils financial crisis. The papers simply continue to wave the shroud of an £24 million – largely unspecified – shortfall.
Additional spending is proposed on;
Supporting local businesses including the tourism sector (£100,000),
“Communities Recovery” (£250,000),
Creating places in which visitors can safely return to the City (£530,000),
Changing building access and deep cleaning (£50,000) and
ICT equipment to allow continued remote working (£500,000).
There is no mention of a freeze on new expenditure.
The report merely reports windfall savings on climate change, waste services, northern forest and local transport plan. All are the result of (unavoidable) delays caused by the lock-down.
The Council says that its capital investment programme is being “reviewed”. That means that the Council is continuing to slip further and further into debt.
The Council promises that it will have a “Big Conversation” with residents over the next 12 months.
Residents may choose to opt for something a little more robust.
