Coronavirus York updates; 8th January 2021

Deaths and test results

Two further deaths announced today at the York Hospital Trust. One occurred on Tuesday and one yesterday.

There have been TWO HUNDRED AND NINE new positive test results announced today. That brings the cumulative total to 8725.

244 cases were recorded on 4th January. That was a record high.

However there may be some very early indications emerging that the rate of increase in infection levels may be slowing.

The current infection rate is now 574.05

The current trend will see this increase to 626.28

There has been the first – very small – reduction in case numbers in the Woodthorpe/Acomb Park neighbourhood.

There has been a sharp rise in the neighbouring Westfield and Acomb areas.

The latest figures are up to the 3rd January. Tomorrow (Saturday)we should see what we hope will be the peak when the figures for the 4th January are published.

York Council commentary

The Council has updated it commentary on the pandemic

People with Covid Symptoms

• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 4.1.21 there had been 290 total covid triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 653 in the 7 day period to 20.9.20.

• As at 7.1.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 1,282.6 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 4,828 people). This is higher than the previous peak rate of 1,116.3 on 31.10.20.

Diagnosed cases (Pillar 1&2 combined)

• As at 7.1.21 York has had 8,522 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 4,046.2 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (4,437.7) and regional (4,983.2) averages.

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (4.1.21) is Red.

• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 30.12.20 to 5.1.21 in York is 595.9 (using data published on Gov.uk on 7.1.21).

• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 27.12.20 to 2.1.21 was 532.7. The national and regional averages at this date were 612.1 and 300.8 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 7.1.21).

• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 27.12.20 to 2.1.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 363.1. The national and regional averages were 412.6 and 216 respectively.

• As at 4.1.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 only) was 13.74%. The national and regional averages are 15.8% and 11.7% respectively. The breakdown for York over the last 7 days by type of test is 1,287 positives out of 7,001 lab based (PCR) tests (18.4%) and 41 positives out of 2,261 rapid (lateral flow) tests (1.54%) Source: NHS Digital

• As at 5.1.21, the latest 14 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 and 2 PCR tests combined) was 16.5%. The national and regional averages were 17.8% and 12.8% respectively. The breakdown for York over the last 14 days is a 6.8% positivity rate for Pillar 1 tests and a 18.6% positivity rate for Pillar 2 PCR tests. Source PHE

• As at 7.1.21 York University reported 39 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.

Contact Tracing

• Since 28.5.20 a total of 7,464 laboratory confirmed CYC Covid cases have been uploaded into the NHS Test and Trace system and 6,556 of the cases have been completed (87.8%). 19,080 ‘contacts’ have been identified and 13,356 of these have been completed (70%). Source: PHE Report.

• Local Tracing of Cases: Between 22.10.20 and 1.1.21, 456 ‘actionable’ positive COVID-19 CYC cases have been referred to the local contact tracing service. 442 of the referrals (96.9%) have been actioned and 14 are still ‘in progress. Of the referrals actioned, 315 were successful and 113 were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible.

Cases in Residential Settings / Schools

• As at 7.1.21 there were 14 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).

• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases) in a residential care setting in York was reported by PHE on 7.1.21 (1 home).

• In the 7 days up to 3.1.21 there were 104 children of primary and secondary school age who tested positive (across 40 different schools).

COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital

• As at 6.1.21 there were 71 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General and Acute beds. The previous figure on 6.1.21 was 66

• As at 6.1.21 there were 6 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 1 suspected Covid-19 patient in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures on 5.1.21 were 5 and 1 respectively.

• As at 6.1.21 there had been 0 patients admitted with suspected Covid-19 and 6 with confirmed Covid-19 in the previous 24 hours.

Recovery from Covid-19

• Between 13.4.20 and 20.12.20, 276 CYC residents had recovered and been successfully discharged from York hospital after needing NHS care for symptoms linked to covid-19 infection. 12 people were discharged in the most recent week.

R Number

• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 23.12.20 was estimated to be in the range 0.9 to 1.1. The previous estimate was (0.9 to 1.1) on 18.12.20.

Vaccinations

• Local data on the number of vaccinations completed is not currently available. At a national level, NHS England reported that between 8.12.20 and 3.1.20, 1,092,885 first dose and 19,981 second dose vaccinations had been administered.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it provides a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS weekly data: For deaths occurring up to 25th December 2020 and registered up to 2nd January 2021, 218 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (109 in hospital, 91 in care homes, 12 at home and 6 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 103.5 which is lower than the national average of 130.56. There have been 46 Covid-19 deaths of CYC residents reported by ONS in the last 12 weeks (Weeks 41 to 52).

• ‘Excess’ deaths – all causes (ONS). Between week 2 and week 52 there were a total of 142 ‘excess deaths’ in York compared with the average weekly numbers for 2014-2018. The breakdown over the year so far is: 18 fewer deaths in weeks 2-14, 210 more deaths in weeks 15-21 (when covid deaths were at their peak) and 50 fewer deaths in weeks 22-52.

• Local Registrar data: In the weekly data received on 4.1.21 (for deaths occurring up to 30.12.20), a cumulative total of 216 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 81.8, with an age range of 44-104. The age profile of those dying in York is older than the national average. 106 of the 216 were male (49.1%), less than the national average (55.3%). 83 people (38.4%) died in nursing /care homes; (the national average is 25.39%). In addition 18 people (8.3%) who normally resided in nursing/care homes in the CYC area, died in hospital.

York Council set to scrap crime prevention fund

The City’s £250,000 “Safer Communities Fund” is set to be scrapped.

The crime busting scheme was one of the first initiatives announced by the new LibDem/Green administration in July 2019.

Use of ward budgets for “target hardening” works over the last 2 decades had been a popular choice by local residents.

Stronger fencing, ,CCTV cameras, more robust street furniture, anti climb paint, snicket/alley closures, improved lighting and many other improvements had been funded from this source.

A report last year explained the purpose of the new Fund.

As part of the council’s Supplementary Budget Proposals agreed on
17 July Council, £250k was awarded to wards as a “Safer
Communities Fund”. The allocation of this funding, in proportion to
population in the normal way, is shown in Annex 1.
Building on the success of the Community Care fund it is proposed that the Safer Communities Fund is operated in a similar way in that it is added into ward revenue funds so that it can be used flexibly by wards on any projects that meet residents’ priorities in terms of creating safer communities.
It is suggested that the planned impact of the spend should be set out in advance and the subsequent outcomes evaluation (see para 25 below concerning evaluation).
Evaluation could be developed in partnership with the Community Safety Team who would also be able to provide evidence-based examples of good practice so that we are able to encourage community groups to put forward good proposals within a flexible budget regime which is operated in line with policies and procedures for ward funding.
PCSOs could also be consulted as part of the ward team as they will
be able to bring useful views to the table and this will provide an
excellent opportunity to strengthen ties between wards and the police.

While it is fair to say that the new scheme has remained something of a enigma to most residents, concerns about crime levels generally – and anti social behavior in particular – remain a high in several neighbourhoods.

In recent years, the Councils attempt to delegate spending power to local communities has been flawed.

A £1 million ward highways budget was divided between equally highways improvements and walking cycling schemes. The latter was spent almost entirely on projects in the south east part of the City.

A year later it is difficult to identify any roads or paths that have benefited. This may partly be because the Council fails to maintain a list of schemes on its web site with appropriate progress reports.

There is a stronger sense of local community in the wake of the pandemic.

People do want to be involved in decision making.

But the current processes used by the Council fail to fully engage people.

Perhaps the increased use of social media seen during the Lockdowns offers a clue as to how engagement levels can be raised in the future.

In the meantime, the Council must explain how it will improve the level of support that it offers to those policing our streets.

Public Health team in York faces Council budget cut

Council bosses in York are planning to cut the Public Health budget next year by £33,000.

*Last public health report published by the York Council*

This will come as a surprise to those residents who, while recognising the good work done by the local authority health teams in recent weeks, had expected the pandemic to prompt increased investment in the service.

This would have been coupled with a “root and branch” review to ensure that the service was equipped to deal with contemporary health risks

£183,000 has, however, been allocated to cover an increase in the size of the population covered by the service.

The Council is budgeting £2.5million for COVID recovery work.

It would be a shame if this investment were to be undermined by further waves of infections whether they be COVID related or from other diseases.

The report says,

In the wake of the pandemic, the Council has stepped in where the Government has failed, including support for vulnerable residents and struggling businesses, and also with Covid-19 testing

The Council must make sure it is even better equipped in future to deal with emerging threats to the health of its residents

Multi storey car park gets planning approval

The proposal to build a multi storey car park on the St Georges Field site received planning permission yesterday. The car park is intended as a replacement for the Castle Car park which would be grassed over.

We have said before that we believe this site is too far from the City centre shops to help to sustain the retail economy.

The Castle car park is the most heavily used in the City. One key reason is that it is within comfortable walking distance for those carrying heavy items of shopping.

The drift to out of city retail centers would continue with the City centre left as a visitor attraction hub sustaining only, what is left of, the pubs and restaurants that may survive the pandemic

The pandemic has changed all the numbers.

It now simply makes no sense to spend £55 million on a scheme which could lose the City much needed jobs

The Council should shelve the plans. They should not be bought off by government financial bribes. The country needs to invest wisely to maximise economic recovery.

The City can tolerate the Castle car park for another decade.

In the interim, the Council can make plans which recognise that personal transport will remain a popular method of moving people from the suburbs and region into the City centre. It is a matter of individual choice.

In future the vehicles used may, however, be battery powered.

The idea of having the area, within the inner road road, designated as an Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) may well be one that has now found its time.

The move to home working – and with it greatly reduced congestion and emission levels in the central area – provides the Council with some thinking time.

A quieter City centre would be bad news for many service based shops, hair dressers etc., They will be hoping that visitors would expand to fill the gap in trade left by office workers.

The Councils draft budget for 2021/22 anticipates a £375,000 saving on office costs – a clear indication that the authority itself believes that many staff will never return to West Offices. The same will be true of other City Centre companies

The Councils budget also contains a commitment to borrow £2.5 million to spend on the Castle Piccadilly scheme. In addition the £28.2 million proposals to construct flats at Castle Mills are budgeted separately

That would simply add to the additional interest and redemption costs of £1.6 million which will account for much of the 1.9% increase in Council Tax levels from 1st April. (The remaining 3% hike is earmarked for social care).

So time now for some prudent revisions to the Councils investment plans.