Coronavirus York updates; 30th July 2021

Hospitals and deaths

Test results

102 positive test results today. They bring the total up to 17,242.

The rate of decline in case numbers is beginning to level off.

The number of cases in the City has fallen from 589 to 551.

The infection rate /100k population is now 261.60

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

712 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Thursday)

Tests

  • 7233 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 25th July 2021
  • Of these, 8.3% were positive. This is lower than the positivity rate of 8.5% found during the previous period.
  • 2030 “lateral flow” tests were also competed on 29th July 2021

Council commentary

The Councils commentary on their “open data” web site has been updated. It is reproduced below

The data is accurate as at 8.00 a.m. on Friday 30.07.21. Some narrative for the data covering the latest period is provided here below:

People with Covid Symptoms

• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 27.7.21 there had been 51 total covid telephony triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 192 in the 7 day period to 22.9.20.

• As at 29.7.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 1,546 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 3,684 people).

Diagnosed cases

• As at 28.7.21 York has had 17,140 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 8,138 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (8,998) and regional (9,803) averages.

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the number of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (26.7.21) is Green.

• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 21.7.21 to 27.7.21 in York is 236.5 (498 cases). (Using data published on Gov.uk on 29.7.21).

• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 18.7.21 to 24.7.21 in York was 279.7 (589 cases). The national and regional averages at this date were 375.2 and 451.3 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 29.7.21).

• York is currently ranked 17th out of 149 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England with a rank of 1 indicating the lowest 7 day rate.

• For the 7 day period 18.7.21 to 24.7.21, the number of cases in each ward varied from 8 to 58 and rates varied from 153.1 to 411.6 per 100,000.

• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 18.7.21 to 24.7.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 64.6 (32 cases). The national and regional averages were 112.0 and 142.5 respectively. Case rates are currently highest in the following age ranges: 10-14 (619 per 100,000); 30-34 (410) and 35-39 (405).

• As at 28.7.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 PCR tests only) was 10.72%. The national and regional averages are 12.2% and 14.8% respectively.

• As at 28.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 Lateral Flow Tests only) was 1.0%. The national and regional averages are 1.1% and 1.4% respectively.

• As at 27.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 tests only) was 1.2%. The national average is 2.1%.

• As at 23.7.21 York University reported 24 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.

• As at 26.7.21 York St. John reported 3 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.

Contact Tracing

• Local Contact Tracing. Between 10.3.21 and 23.7.21, 2,532 referrals had been actioned by the local contact tracing service. Of the referrals actioned, 2,319 (91.6%) were successful and 213 (8.4%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible. (NB on the 10.3.21 the local CYC team became responsible for contacting all cases rather than just those that the national team could not contact).

Cases in Residential Care Settings

• As at 22.7.21 there were 6 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).

• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases of either a staff member or resident) in a residential care setting in York were reported by PHE on 22.7.21 (1 home).

Cases amongst School Aged Children

• In the 7 days up to 26.7.21 there were 130 children of primary or secondary school age who tested positive.

COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital

• As at 27.7.21 there were 23 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General/Acute beds. The previous figure was 18 on 20.7.21. The peak number was 157 on 19.1.21.

• As at 27.7.21 there were 3 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 0 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures were 1 and 0 on 20.7.21. The peak number for people in ITU was 19 on 10.5.20.

R Number

• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 23.7.21 was estimated to be in the range 1.2 to 1.5. The previous estimate was (1.2 to 1.6) on 16.7.21.

Variants of Concern

• In the latest month for which data is available, 456 cases in York (with a specimen date between 27th June 2021 and 26th July 2021) had been processed in a laboratory which is able to carry out the required sequencing in order to identify Variants of Concern (VOC) or Variants under Investigation (VUI). Of these, there had been 455 cases (genomically confirmed or provisional genotyping) of the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC-21APR-02) which was first identified in India.

Total Vaccinations

• As at 28.7.21 a total of 147,752 CYC residents have had the first dose of the vaccine. This represents 84.7% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York (ONS 2020)

• As at 28.7.21 a total of 113,021 CYC residents have had both doses of the vaccine. This represents 64.8% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York (ONS 2020).

• Source: PHE Covid-19 Situational Awareness Explorer.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data provides a breakdown by age and gender. For both data sources a death from Covid-19 is said to have occurred when Covid-19 has been recorded on the death certificate. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS Weekly data: In the most recent period (Week 28: 10.7.21 to 16.7.21) 0 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents. There has been one recorded covid death between week 18 and week 28.

• ONS Cumulative data: Since the start of the pandemic, for deaths occurring up to 16th July 2021 and registered up to 24th July 2021, 397 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (228 in hospital, 136 in care homes, 25 at home/elsewhere and 8 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 188.49 which is lower than the national average of 233.99

• Age / Gender breakdown (using registrar data): The average age of the CYC residents who died was 82.1, with an age range of 40-104. The age profile of the CYC residents who have died is older than the national average (79.4% were aged 75+ compared with 72.9% nationally). 47.9% of the CYC residents who died were male. The national average is 54.4%.

Coronavirus York updates; 29th July 2021

Hospitals and deaths

One more patient in intensive care today. No more deaths

Test results

91 positive test results today. They bring the total up to 17,140

The rate /100k population falls to 279.66.

Case numbers in the City have reduced by 46 today

Case numbers are expected to continue to decline slowly. The figures will be influenced by 108 positive results recorded on Monday – the largest single day total for a fortnight.

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

886 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Wednesday)

Tests

  • 7347 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 24th July 2021
  • Of these, 8.5% were positive. That is less than the 9.1% positivity found during the pervious week.
  • In addition, 2067 “lateral flow” tests were completed on 28th July 2021

Coronavirus York updates; 27th July 2021

Hospitals and deaths

Patient numbers at local hospitals are creeping up but there have been no further deaths

Test results

55 positive test results today. Brings cumulative total up to 16,962

Case numbers in the City have fallen by 121 from 870 to 749. That is one of the largest single day reductions that we have seen.

There has been a big fall in the infection rate /100k population which now stands at 355.63

Case numbers now seem to be falling as quickly as they rose during late June.

The downturn in case numbers is being sustained at all levels.

Neighbourhoods

There has been a 25.1% reduction in the City’s infection rate comparing week on week .

The majority of neighbourhoods are now showing reductions with most also now having seen their infection rate drop below 400.

Vaccinations

338 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Monday)

Tests

  • 7786 PCR tests were conducted during the week ending 22nd July 2021
  • Of these, 10.3% were positive. That is less than the 11.4% positivity rate found during the previous week.
  • 2264 “lateral flow” tests were also conducted on 26th July 2021

Coronavirus York updates; 26th July 2021

Hospital patients and deaths

An increase in hospital patient numbers is reported today but there have been no more deaths

Test results

67 positive test results today. Brings the cumulative total up to 16,907

The number of cases in the City has fallen by 66 to 870

The rate /100k population has fallen to 413.09. The trend downwards continues and there are hopes that tomorrows figures will see the rate fall below 400.

Infection rates are continuing to fall at City. county, regional and national levels.

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

424 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Sunday)

Tests

  • 7997 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 21st July 2021
  • Of these, 11.5% were positive. This is less than the 12.0% positivity rate found during the previous week.
  • In addition, 2157 “lateral flow” test swere completed on 25th July 2021

Coronavirus York updates: 22nd July 2021

Hospital patients and deaths

Test results

99 additional positive test results announced today. Brings total to 16,634.

The number of cases in the City has increased by 4 and now stands at 1069

The rate /100k population has edged up to 507.57 today. There is some evidence that this may be a peak and that case numbers may drop over the next few days

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

Only 169 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Wednesday)

Tests

  • 8663 PCR tests were undertaken during the week ending 17th July 2021
  • Of these, 12.6% were positive. That is an increase from the 12.4% positivity found during the previous period
  • 2937 “lateral flow” tests were also completed on 21st July 2021

Coronavirus York updates; 21st July 2021

Hospital patients and deaths

Two additional deaths reported today by the York Hospital Trust. One occurred on Monday and the other yesterday. They bring the total number of local fatalities up to 601

Test results

127 positive test results announced today. Bring the cumulative total up to 16,535.

An additional 64 cases have been found in the City. This brings the total up to 1065

The rate /100K population is now 505.68. That is the highest recorded during the current wave. It is expected to remain at around that level tomorrow before stabilising at just below 500 for the remainder of the week.

Infection rates in York are currently below the County, Regional and National averages

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

594 vaccinations were completed yesterday.

Tests

  • 8672 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 16th July 2021
  • Of these, 12.5% were positive. That s higher than the 11.8% positivity rate found during the previous period.
  • In addition 2131 “lateral flow” tests were undertaken on 20th July.

Coronavirus York updates; 20th July 2021

Hospital patients and deaths

Three more deaths were announced by the York Hospital Trust today. Two occurred on Thursday and one on Saturday. It means that there have been 5 fatalities during the last week. In total, the local COVID-19 death toll now stands at 599.

The number of COVID patients in hospital is rising.

Test results

122 positive test results announced today. Brings cumulative total up to 16,408

75 additional cases in the City today. Brings total up to 1001.

The rate /100k population has risen to 475.29. Still trending to exceed 500 before the end of the week.

The infection rate in North Yorkshire and regional levels now exceed the case rate high set in January.

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

441 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Monday) That is the smallest daily number since mass vaccinations began. 15% of eligible York residents have not yet had their first jab.

NB. On Thursday 22 July, vaccination uptake for the UK, nations and Scottish local authorities will be updated to use the mid-2020 population estimates.

Tests

  • 8535 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 15th July 2021
  • Of these, 11.9% were positive. That is an increase from the 11.1% recorded during the previous period
  • In addition, 3185 “lateral flow” tests were completed on 19th July 2021.

Coronavirus York updates; 19th July 2021

Hospital patients and deaths

No further deaths over the weekend

Test results

107 positive test results announced today. That is the lowest for several days. The cumulative total is now 16,286.

The number of cases in the City has increased by 5 to 926.

The rate /100k population is now 439.68. The latest spike will start to show in tomorrows figures. By Wednesday the 500 milestone is likely to have been exceeded.

The infection rate in York (439.7) has now fallen below that being experienced in North Yorkshire (463.9) and the region (536.5). It remains above the England average (426.1).

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

870 vaccinations were competed yesterday (Sunday)

Tests

  • 8490 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 14th July 2021
  • Of these, 11.1% were positive. That is down on the 11.2% positivity rate recorded during the previous period
  • 3331 “lateral flow” tests were also completed on 18th July 2021.

Coronavirus York 16th July 2021

Hospitals & Deaths

Two additional COVID-19 deaths have been announced by the York Hospital Trust today. Both occurred on Wednesday. They are the first fatalities notified since the 30th June.

Test results

135 positive test results today. Brings the cumulative total up to 15,856

The number of cases in the City has increased from 861 to 876

The rate /100k population is now 415.94. A further increase is expected when tomorrows figures are confirmed.

Neighbourhoods

The highest infection rate is currently in the Foxwood North/Westfield/Chapelfields neighbourhood.

Vaccinations

661 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Thursday)

Tests

  • 8305 PCR tests were undertaken during the week ending 11th July 2021
  • Of these, 11.0% were positive. This is higher than the 10.6% positivity found during the previous period
  • In addition, 3464 “lateral flow” tests were undertaken on 14th July.

Council commentary

The York Council has updated its “open data” commentary on the pandemic

The data is accurate as at 8.00 a.m. on Friday 16.07.21. Some narrative for the data covering the latest period is provided here below:

People with Covid Symptoms

• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 13.7.21 there had been 51 total covid telephony triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 192 in the 7 day period to 22.9.20.

• As at 15.7.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 671 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 3,756 people). The peak rate was 1,283 on 7.1.21.

Diagnosed cases

• As at 15.7.21 York has had 15,721 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 7,464 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (8,162) and regional (8,809) averages.

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the number of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (12.7.21) is Green.

• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 7.7.21 to 13.7.21 in York is 430.6 (907 cases). (Using data published on Gov.uk on 15.7.21).

• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 4.7.21 to 10.7.21 in York was 408.8 (861 cases). The national and regional averages at this date were 350.3 and 463.4 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 15.7.21).

• York is currently ranked 104th out of 149 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England with a rank of 1 indicating the lowest 7 day rate.

• For the 7 day period 4.7.21.to 10.7.21, the number of cases in each ward varied from 14 to 72 and rates varied from 240.4 to 627.1 per 100,000.

• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 4.7.21 to 10.7.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 72.6 (36 cases). The national and regional averages were 70.6 and 95.8 respectively. Case rates are highest in the following age ranges: 15-19 (1,100 per 100,000); 20-24 (743); 10-14 (695) and 30-34 (626).

• As at 13.7.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 PCR tests only) was 16.01%. The national and regional averages are 13.5% and 17.5% respectively.

• As at 13.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 Lateral Flow Tests only) was 1.38%. The national and regional averages are 1.3% and 1.8% respectively.

• As at 13.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 tests only) was 1.4%. The national average is 1.6%.

• As at 9.7.21 York University reported 110 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.

• As at 12.6.21 York St. John reported 2 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.

Contact Tracing

• Local Contact Tracing. Between 10.3.21 and 9.7.21, 1,599 referrals had been actioned by the local contact tracing service. Of the referrals actioned, 1,481 (92.6%) were successful and 118 (7.4%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible. (NB on the 10.3.21 the local CYC team became responsible for contacting all cases rather than just those that the national team could not contact).

Cases in Residential Care Settings

• As at 15.7.21 there were 7 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).

• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases of either a staff member or resident) in a residential care setting in York were reported by PHE on 2.7.21 (1 home).

Cases amongst School Aged Children

• In the 7 days up to 12.7.21 there were 158 children of primary or secondary school age who tested positive (across 39 different schools).

COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital

• As at 13.7.21 there were 15 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General/Acute beds. The previous figure was 15 on 7.7.21. The peak number was 157 on 19.1.21.

• As at 13.7.21 there were 2 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 0 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures were 1 and 0 on 7.7.21. The peak number for people in ITU was 19 on 10.5.20.

R Number

• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 9.7.21 was estimated to be in the range 1.3 to 1.6. The previous estimate was (1.2 to 1.4) on 2.7.21.

Variants of Concern

• In the latest month for which data is available, 792 cases in York (with a specimen date between 11th June 2021 and 10th July 2021) had been processed in a laboratory which is able to carry out the required sequencing in order to identify Variants of Concern (VOC) or Variants under Investigation (VUI). Of these, there had been 786 cases (genomically confirmed or provisional genotyping) of the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC-21APR-02) which was first identified in India.

Total Vaccinations

• As at 14.7.21 a total of 146,162 CYC residents have had the first dose of the vaccine. This represents 83.8% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York (ONS 2020)

• As at 13.7.21 a total of 105,945 CYC residents have had both doses of the vaccine. This represents 60.7% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York (ONS 2020).

• Source: PHE Covid-19 Situational Awareness Explorer.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data provides a breakdown by age and gender. For both data sources a death from Covid-19 is said to have occurred when Covid-19 has been recorded on the death certificate. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS Weekly data: In the most recent period (Week 26: 26.6.21 to 2.7.21) 0 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents. There has been one recorded covid death between week 18 and week 26.

• ONS Cumulative data: Since the start of the pandemic, for deaths occurring up to 2nd July 2021 and registered up to 10th July 2021, 397 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (228 in hospital, 136 in care homes, 25 at home/elsewhere and 8 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 188.49 which is lower than the national average of 233.30

• Age / Gender breakdown (using registrar data): The average age of the CYC residents who died was 82.1, with an age range of 40-104. The age profile of the CYC residents who have died is older than the national average (79.4% were aged 75+ compared with 72.9% nationally). 47.9% of the CYC residents who died were male. The national average is 54.4%.

Freedom (to infect) Day?

This web site isn’t particularly impressed by the governments decision to end all legal restricitons on activities on Monday. We have the highest growth in infection levels in the world with growing numbers (nationally) being admitted to hospital. Death rates are also rising. The latest figures show that around 40% of those being admitted to hospital had been vaccinated.

The solution – to ensure maximum safety for the whole community – will have to be a local one. Much more is needed than the welcome – but inadequate – plea from political leaders that people be “kind” to each other.

  1. There must be a determined, high profile, effort to get more people vaccinated. That probably means taking the vaccinators to the patients rather than the other way round. Councillors have a major community role to play in such a process.
  2. A list of “drop in ” vaccination sites with opening hours should be maintained on a central web site and updated in real time. Any shortages (type of vaccine, staff) should be candidly reported
  3. The Council should support the use of “vaccine passports”. Although not favoured by some on civil liberties grounds, the sheer scale of the present problem requires compromises.
  4. Use of facemasks in public indoor areas should continue at least until case numbers reduce considerably.
  5. Access to busy indoor venues should be restricted (by the owners) to those who are double dosed and can produce proof of a recent negative test. Those venues imposing such conditions should be publicised. We beleive that there are many potential customers who would be encouraged to patronise a venue if it continued to be “COVID secure”.
  6. The local impact on the economy of workers self isolating following being “pinged” by the NHS App. should be reported regularly.
  7. More information should be provided each day on where and when infection contacts have occurred.
  8. The local authority must be pro-active and open in its plans for the new educational term. We cannot afford another spike in case numbers like the one that occurred last autumn.

Coronavirus York updates; 15th July 2021

Hospital patients and deaths

Test results

146 positive test results today. They bring the cumulative total up to 15,721

Case numbers have fallen from 878 to 861

The rate /100k population is 408.81. This is the lowest it is likely to be for some time. Cases in the pipeline mean that a rise to a rate of around 444.,4 is likely on Saturday.

Neighbourhoods

Vaccinations

510 vaccinations were completed in the City yesterday (first plus second jabs). That is the lowest figure for several weeks. It is understood this is due to a downturn in people coming forward for a vaccination, rather than any capacity issues.

In some parts of the City, as few as 60% have even had their first jab.

The authorities need a fresh approach. Possibly mobile “vax vans” could tour neighbourhoods with a low take up rate? Something certainly needs to be done to reinvigorate the vaccination campaign. We are only days away from a final relaxation of restricitons. The government predicts that infection rates will then soar. Vaccination remains the main bulwark against rising infection rates.

Tests

  • 8257 PCR tests were carried out during the week ending 10th July 2021
  • Of these, 10.6% were positive. That is lower than the 10.7% positivity found during the previous period.
  • 3464 “lateral flow” tests were also conducted on 14th July.