December 6, 2020 – York commentary archive site

Deaths and test results

No additional hospital deaths announced in York today

SIXTEEN (16) additional positive test results announced today. Cumulative total is now 5753

The infection rate has now levelled off at 65 cases per 100k population.

The apparent bottoming out of the reduction preceded our exiting Lockdown. Case figures for the next few days may be viewed with some anxiety.

There appears to be no obvious reason for the change to the reduction trend. It may just be a blip.

However, both Haxby and Huntington have shown recent increases in case numbers.

Latest commentary on pandemic from York Council

People with Covid Symptoms

• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 30.11.20 there had been 157 total covid triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 653 in the 7 day period to 20.9.20.

• As at 3.12.20, the Covid Symptom App estimates 459.9 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 4,745 people). The peak rate was 1,116.3 on 31.10.20.

Diagnosed cases (Pillar 1&2 combined)

• As at 3.12.20 York has had 5,695 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 2,703.9 per 100,000 of population. The rate in York is above the national average (2,556.1) but below the regional average (3,946).

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (30.11.20) is Green.

• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 25.11.20 to 1.12.20 in York is 57.45 (using data published on Gov.uk on 3.12.20).

• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 22.11.20 to 28.11.20 was 76.9. The national and regional averages at this date were 155.4 and 191.5 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 3.12.20).

• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 22.11.20 to 28.11.20 for people aged 60+ in York was 62.5. The national and regional averages were 117 and 157.9 respectively.

• As at 29.11.20, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 only) was 3.87%. The national and regional averages are 7 % and 8.2% respectively.

• As at 3.12.20 York University reported 36 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.

• As at 30.11.20 York St. John reported 7 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.

Contact Tracing

• Since 28.5.20 a total of 4,534 laboratory confirmed CYC Covid cases have been uploaded into the NHS Test and Trace system and 4,009 of the cases have been completed (88.4%). 12,920 ‘contacts’ have been identified and 7,740 of these have been completed (59.9%). Source: PHE Report.

• Local Tracing of Cases: Between 22.10.20 and 27.11.20, 321 ‘actionable’ positive COVID-19 CYC cases have been referred to the local contact tracing service. 321 of the referrals (100%) have been actioned. Of the referrals actioned, 240 (74.8%) were successful and 81 (25.2%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible. (Local activity has been included in the National Test and Trace statistics since 22.10.20).

Cases in Residential Settings / Schools

• As at 3.12.20 there were 3 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).

• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases) in a residential care setting in York was reported on 2.12.20 (1 home).

• In the 7 days up to 29.11.20 there were 8 children of primary and secondary school age who tested positive (across 6 different schools).

COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital

• As at 2.12.20 there were 32 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General and Acute beds. The previous figure on 1.12.20 was 30.

• As at 2.12.20 there were 6 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 0 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures on 1.12.20 were 6 and 0 respectively.

• As at 2.12.20 there had been 0 patients admitted with suspected Covid-19 and 1 with confirmed Covid-19 in the previous 24 hours

Recovery from Covid-19

• Between 13.4.20 and 29.11.20, 250 CYC residents had recovered and been successfully discharged from York hospital after needing NHS care for symptoms linked to covid-19 infection. 14 people were discharged in the most recent week.

R Number

• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 27.11.20 was estimated to be in the range 0.8 to 1.0. The previous estimate was (1.0 to 1.1) on 20.11.20.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it provides a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS weekly data: For deaths occurring up to 20th November 2020 and registered up to 28th November 2020, 191 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (94 in hospital, 83 in care homes, 10 at home and 4 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 90.69 which is lower than the national average of 106.87. There have been 19 Covid-19 deaths of CYC residents reported by ONS in the last 7 weeks (Weeks 41 to 47).

• ‘Excess’ deaths – all causes (ONS). In week 47 (7 Nov to 13 Nov), 36 deaths (all causes) occurred for York residents, which is the same as the average weekly number for 2014-18. Between week 2 and week 47 there were a total of 131 ‘excess deaths’ in York compared with the average weekly numbers for 2014-2018. The breakdown over the year so far is: 19 fewer deaths between week 2 and week 14, 209 more deaths between week 15 and week 21 (when covid deaths were at their peak) and 59 fewer deaths between week 22 and week 47.

• Local Registrar data: In the weekly data received on 30.11.20 (for deaths occurring up to 25.11.20), a cumulative total of 183 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 82.5, with an age range of 53-104. The age profile of those dying in York is older than the national average. 91 of the 183 were male (49.7%), less than the national average (55.4%). 77 people (42.1%) died in nursing /care homes; (the national average is 26.9%). In addition 15 people (8.2%) who normally resided in nursing/care homes in the CYC area, died in hospital.

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Image result for council meeting gifs — The Executive takes decisions

It seems that the York Council intends to change the order that it considers items at its next meeting which is scheduled to take place on 17^th December.

The Lord Mayor wants to reorder the agenda to allow four motions to be debated. There will be one from the each of the different political groups represented on the authority.

It seems though that this approach does not have the support of all the Group Leaders nor some Independents.

The truth of the matter is that such motions rarely lead to any real change to what happens on the streets of the City. Too often the topics for motions appear to reflect personal interests or offer an under-researched flash of kitchen table vision. Central government policies are often the butt of vitriol, but rarely do the policies that are criticised change as a result of what is said in the York Council chamber.

Too often the debates decline into to a series of grandstanding statements. There is little opportunity to find consensus.

Currently the Councils, increasingly opaque and defensive, Executive takes the key policy decisions. A full Council meeting is a rare opportunity for back benchers to question and hold to account portfolio holders.

The option of submitting written questions, with written answers circulated if they were not reached in the time available, was jettisoned by the last administration. Now all observers hear are a series of garbled questions and opaque answers.

Now is seems that the time available to do even this will be squeezed.

Part of the solution is to agree an equitable division of time for each agenda item.

As long ago as the 1970s, Group Leaders used to meet with the Lord Mayor to agree how a meeting could be run efficiently and equitably.

Perhaps it is time to reinstate that tradition?

NB. The York Council has published details of how its departments will be organised in future. The proposals come in the wake of the appointment of a new Chief Operating Officer.

Residents will hope that any new structure focusses on street level delivery and that the decline in some service standards can be reversed.

The real key though is to make the right appointments to key jobs.

If new personalities are appointed, then the Council can hope to get back to being a “can do” authority and would be well placed to make the most of any devolution deal which may become available

York commentary archive site

Coronavirus York updates; 6th Dec 2020

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