The media are reporting that Fulford school is closing because of a very high level of COVID infections and contacts.
There are 107 cases among York school pupils
York hospital and primary care is under “immense pressure,” says public health director Sharon Stoltz at a York Council meeting this evening. She says healthcare staff are demoralised and worried about another wave. “Many are off work with COVID, self-isolating, caring for children who are self isolating or off sick with mental health problems”
Change to government policy for relaxations on 19th July
The guidance for vulnerable people has been updated (click link)
The government is changing its stance on the removal of restrictions on 19th July.
After July 19 businesses and large events will be “supported and encouraged to use certification in high risk settings to help limit the spread of infections in their venues”. Certification will involve asking attendees to prove their vaccination status byshowing the NHS app; showing a NHS text or email proving they have had a recent negative lateral flow test in the past 48 hours; or showing a positive PCR test within the last six months suggesting they will have immunity from the virus.
New guidance will also be issued for people who are clinically vulnerable, which will encourage them to meet others outside and to check the vaccination status of their social contacts.
the Government will “recommend” that people in England continue to wear face coverings in crowded areas, such as on public transport. It is understood the guidance will apply to indoor settings that are less likely to be ventilated and where people are likely to come across others with whom they do not normally mix.
Under updated guidance, the instruction to “work from home” will be lifted on July 19, but businesses will be told to avoid allowing all staff to return at once, “We expect and recommend a gradual return to the workplace over the summer.”
Hospital patient numbers and deaths
Hospital patients numbers edging up. Now two in intensive care.
130 new positive test results today. Brings cumulative total up to 15,126
The number of cases in the City has risen from 854 to 876
The rate /100k population has increased to 415.94.
The infection rate has leveled off but is not yet showing any signs of a sustained fall
The infection rate in York has now fallen below the regional average. It remains above the national average
The Heslington/University neighbourhood is no longer in the above 400 infection rate banding.
11 neighbourhoods now have very high infection levels
606 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Sunday)
A significant milestone was passed, with more than 60% of York residents now having received both their first and second doses.
8238 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 7th July 2021.
Of these, 10.6% were positive. That is more tha the 10.4% found during the previous period.
3335 “lateral flow” tests were also conducted on 11th July 2021
128 positive test results today, Brings the cumulative total up to 14,913.
The number of cases in the City has reduced from 872 to 865
The rate /100k population falls to 410.71. The rate is on course to stablise at around 400 over the next few days.
Some of the slides used at a Council meeting which took place on Wednesday have now been published, They include some interesting information about the spread of infections. The following graph confirms that the majority of cases are connected with groups still in education.
Infection rates continue to fall at Heslington/University. It no longer has the highest rate in the City. The highest infection rate can now be found in Tang Hall
Both Tang Hall and Fulford Road/Clementhorpe are now experiencing the highest number of COVID cases recorded since the pandemic began in early 2020
The Council have published information on how vaccination levels vary for different age groups/occupations
Figures released on Wednesday suggest that there is some SPARE CAPACITY in the vaccination programme
1296 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Thursday)
8235 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 4th July 2021
Of these, 10.3% were positive. That represents a reduction on the 10.5% positivity found during the previous period.
2669 “lateral flow” tests were also completed on 8th July 2021
Council commentary updates
The data is accurate as at 8.00 a.m. on Friday 09.07.21. Some narrative for the data covering the latest period is provided here below:
People with Covid Symptoms
• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 6.7.21 there had been 71 total covid telephony triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 192 in the 7 day period to 22.9.20.
• As at 8.7.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 723 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 3,807 people). The peak rate was 1,283 on 7.1.21.
• As at 8.7.21 York has had 14,785 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 7,020 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (7,750) and regional (8,291) averages.
• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the number of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (5.7.21) is Red.
• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 30.6.21 to 6.7.21 in York is 398.4 (839 cases). (Using data published on Gov.uk on 8.7.21).
• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 27.6.21 to 3.7.21 in York was 414 (872 cases). The national and regional averages at this date were 263.9 and 333.2 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 8.7.21).
• York is currently ranked 119th out of 149 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England with a rank of 1 indicating the lowest 7 day rate.
• For the 7 day period 26.6.21.to 2.7.21, the number of cases in each ward varied from 3 to141 and rates varied from 72.3 to 929.7 per 100,000.
• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 27.6.21 to 3.7.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 62.5 (31 cases). The national and regional averages were 47.3 and 56.3 respectively.
• As at 6.7.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 PCR tests only) was 13.67%. The national and regional averages are 10.2% and 13.5% respectively.
• As at 6.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 Lateral Flow Tests only) was 1.27%. The national and regional averages are 1.0% and 1.4% respectively.
• As at 6.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 tests only) was 1.0%. The national average is 1.1%.
• As at 2.7.21 York University reported 240 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.
• As at 28.6.21 York St. John reported 4 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.
• Local Contact Tracing. Between 10.3.21 and 2.7.21, 1,239 referrals had been actioned by the local contact tracing service. Of the referrals actioned, 1,158 (93.5%) were successful and 81 (6.5%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible. (NB on the 10.3.21 the local CYC team became responsible for contacting all cases rather than just those that the national team could not contact).
Cases in Residential Care Settings
• As at 7.7.21 there were 3 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).
• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases of either a staff member or resident) in a residential care setting in York were reported by PHE on 2.7.21 (1 home).
Cases amongst School Aged Children
• In the 7 days up to 5.7.21 there were 107 children of primary or secondary school age who tested positive (across 34 different schools).
COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital
• As at 7.7.21 there were 15 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General/Acute beds. The previous figure was 5 on 29.6.21. The peak number was 157 on 19.1.21.
• As at 7.7.21 there was 1 confirmed Covid-19 patient and 0 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures were 1 and 0 on 29.6.21. The peak number for people in ITU was 19 on 10.5.20.
• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 2.7.21 was estimated to be in the range 1.2 to 1.4. The previous estimate was (1.2 to 1.5) on 25.6.21.
Variants of Concern
• In the latest month for which data is available, 816 cases in York (with a specimen date between 5th June 2021 and 4th July 2021) had been processed in a laboratory which is able to carry out the required sequencing in order to identify Variants of Concern (VOC) or Variants under Investigation (VUI). Of these, there had been 802 cases (genomically confirmed or provisional genotyping) of the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC-21APR-02) which was first identified in India.
• As at 7.7.21 a total of 143,963 CYC residents have had the first dose of the vaccine. This represents 82.5% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York.
• As at 7.7.21 a total of 100,904 CYC residents have had both doses of the vaccine. This represents 57.9% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York.
• Source: PHE Covid-19 Situational Awareness Explorer
The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data provides a breakdown by age and gender. For both data sources a death from Covid-19 is said to have occurred when Covid-19 has been recorded on the death certificate. The most recently available data is summarised below:
• ONS Weekly data: In the most recent period (Week 25: 19.6.21 to 25.6.21) 0 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents. There has been one recorded covid death between week 18 and week 25.
• ONS Cumulative data: Since the start of the pandemic, for deaths occurring up to 18th June 2021 and registered up to 26th June 2021, 397 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (228 in hospital, 136 in care homes, 25 at home/elsewhere and 8 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 188.49 which is lower than the national average of 232.76
• Age / Gender breakdown (using registrar data): The average age of the CYC residents who died was 82.1, with an age range of 44-104. The age profile of the CYC residents who have died is older than the national average (79.6% were aged 75+ compared with 72.9% nationally). 47.7% of the CYC residents who died were male. The national average is 54.4%.
96 new positive test results today. Brings the cumulative total up to 14,499.
The number of cases in the City has risen from 852 to 867
The rate /100k population has risen to 411.66. The rate is expected to remain at around that level over then next few days
According to a report to a meeting taking place tomorrow (see below) as many as 525 students at the University of York are now self isolating. The report goes on to say ” Generally the drivers behind this rise in infections appears to be increasing social activity – inline with the stage three unlocking since May”
1636 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Monday)
7817 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 1st July 2021
Of these, 10.8% were positive. That is the same proportion as were found during the previous period.
In addition 3145 “lateral flow” tests were competed on 5th July 2021
Outbreak Management Board
Some interesting – and sobering – reports being discussed tomorrow. Made more relevant by pending government decisions on face coverings, social distancing, the reopening of offices etc.
There has been an increase in the number of patients being treated for COVID in local hospitals.
There have been no further deaths
The latest government figures covering the period up to 11th June show there have been no further deaths of York residents. The total number of fatalities remains at 379.
103 positive test results. Brings cumulative total up to 13,139
The number of cases in the City has increased from 238 to 269
The 83 positive test results recorded on Tuesday was the highest single day figure seen since 20th January 2021.
Rate /100k pop rises to 126.77. However the infection rate is now rising rapidly with the 200 threshold likely to be broken next week.
The University/Fulford area now has an infection rate above 400. It is the first time that we have seen that threshold exceeded since January 2021. At 441% week on week the infection growth rates are the highest seen anywhere in the City this year.
Several other neighbourhoods – mainly on the east of the City – are also showing very high infection growth rates.
Perhaps surprisingly there has been little public comment or action from the responsible authorities about this deteriorating situation.
Over 50% of adults in all neighbourhoods in York have now had their first jab. There have been big increases this week in areas like Heslington and Tang Hall
Neighbourhoods with the largest percentage of double doses are Dunnington. Wigginton and Bishopthorpe
6156 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 19th June 2021
Of these, 4.0% were positive. That is higher than the 3.9% found during the previous period
In additional 3381 lateral flow test were conducted on 23rd June.
“Drop in” for a jab
Nimbuscare are staging a series of walk-in, pop-up Covid vaccination clinics at venues across the city during the coming week to try to reach local people over the age of 18 years who have not yet received their first dose.
All eligible patients are welcome to turn up on the day, but it is possible to book an appointment in advance through your GP surgery if you prefer to do so.
Anyone who has not yet received their first dose is encouraged to attend one of the following clinics:
Saturday 26 June, from 8.30am to 1.40pm, at Jorvik Gillygate Practice on Stonebow (Astra Zeneca).
Sunday 27 June, from 12.30pm to 3.30pm, at Priory Medical Group’s Tang Hall Lane Surgery (Pfizer).
Monday 28 June, from 12.45pm to 5pm, at Burnholme Sports Centre (Pfizer).
Tuesday 29 June, from 8.30am to 7.30pm, at the University of York (Pfizer).
Wednesday 30 June, from 5pm to 8.30pm, at York St. John University (Pfizer).
Thursday 1 July, from 12.30pm to 3.30pm, at York St. John University (Pfizer).
Friday 2 July, from 8.30am to 7.30pm, at York St. John University (Pfizer).
Saturday 3 July, from 12.30pm to 3.30pm, at Priory Medical Group’s Tang Hall Lane Surgery (Pfizer).
Sunday 4 July, from 8.45am to 3pm, at Burnholme Sports Centre (Pfizer).
The number of hospital patients continues to trend upwards. However there are no patients in intensive care and there have been no additional deaths
59 positive test results were announced today. This brings the cumulative total up to 12,967
The number of cases in the City has increased from 189 to 216
The rate /100k population is now 102.56.
Infection rates in York are now higher than the county, regional and national levels.
For the first time since March, we now have a neighbourhood with an infection rate above 200. The area concerned covers the University, Heslington and Fulford (rate currently 229.4). Rates are also high in adjacent “dormitory” areas like Fulford Road and Tang Hall.
We did see a similar exponential growth in cases in the Heslington area in September/October last year. Then the infection rate peaked at 1720. The spike was generally put down to a lack of social distancing by students newly arrived in the City. A lockdown reduced the problem. Although that solution is not available at present, the University authorities are arranging a flash vaccination programme on the campus.
Although it won’t be popular with everyone, we think that the idea of a “COVID passport” may have to be revived. Only those with a double dose vaccination and/or a recent negative test would be allowed into venues where close social contact is possible. Everyone is due to be offered double dose vaccinations before September.
Updated vaccination stats are not yet available
5720 PCR test were conducted during the week ending 17th June 2021
Of these, 3.6% were positive. That is more than the 3.2% recorded during the previous period
3159 “lateral flow” tests were also conducted on 21st June 2021.