So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Westfield and Wheldrake wards reviewed

Westfield Ward

The Westfield Ward is home to 14,171 residents. Average incomes are significantly lower than the City average. 57% of residents own their home. 9% rent privately and 32% are social tenants. There are 1,654 Council homes in the area (the largest concentration in the City). 2.5% are out of work. Crime levels are above average. 73.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 38.1% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Westfield has been held by the Liberal Democrats for most of the last 50 years. Labour briefly gained the three seats in their 2011 landslide but equally quickly lost them again. The end for Labour started in the autumn of 2014 when a by-election saw a record swing back to the LibDems and their candidate Andrew Waller. They followed that up by taking all the seats in the 2015 poll with large majorities.

The only blip came when they decided not to re-select Sheena Jackson as a candidate. It is understood that this was for reasons of style rather than policy differences.

The new LibDem candidate is former local government officer Simon Daubeney who doesn’t live in he ward (but lives nearby in Woodthorpe). Indeed it is the first time in 50 years that the LibDems will not be including a Foxwood resident on their slate of candidates . Foxwood is the largest population centre in the ward having about 1/3 of the total electorate. Two of the other candidates do live in Foxwood (Sheena Jackson and Labour’s Louise Corson, although the latter declined to say where lives on her nomination form!).

Labour are also fielding someone who describes himself as a “Management Consultant” and who has moved into the Chapelfields area. Their third candidate is a former Ethiopian refugee currently living in the Holgate Ward. He apparently admires the Ethiopian socialist people’s revolution, which may put him to the left of even most ardent of Corbyn supporters.

The other two parties are putting up “straw” candidates although the Tories have drafted in current Rawcliffe Councillor Sam Lisle, no doubt to give him a salutary send off.

This is one of the poorest wards in the City. It has a very large percentage of social housing. More housing is scheduled to be built on local playing fields and sports grounds. Life expectancy is the lowest in the City and obesity levels are the highest. The LibDems will feel that they have done enough over the last 4 years to merit a further term of office. ….but more will be expected of them if they are to continue in the future.

Prediction

3 Liberal Democrat seats

Wheldrake Ward

The Wheldrake Ward is home to 4,132 residents. Average incomes are significantly higher than the City average. 86% of residents own their home. 8% rent privately and 5% are social tenants. There are 44 Council homes in the area (the largest concentration in the City). 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 83.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 18.2% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Wheldrake was won by the Tories from the LibDems in 2011. It has remained Tory since then. There is an unusual choice of candidates with two of them adopting a peripatetic approach to their party loyalties.

Current Councillor Suzie Mercer was elected as a Conservative. She was one of the 9 Councillors who quit the 14 strong Tory party group, one way or another, in the run up to the election. She is seeking to retain her seat as an Independent.

Equally flexible is the LibDem candidate Christian Vassie who represented the area on the Council between 1999 and 2007. He lost his seat in 2011 and strangely chose to contest the Holgate Ward as an Independent in the 2015 poll. He performed poorly there. He now turns up again in Wheldrake, the ward in which he lives. His application to return to the LibDems must have caused some soul-searching for the candidate selection panel, especially in view of his acerbic comments about party policy in the letters column of the local newspaper.

The Tory candidate, relative unknown Wesley Coultas, lives in the ward in the village of Naburn. This is the smallest of the villages which make up the ward. Wheldrake and Elvington are both much larger communities.

Parochial loyalties can be important in rural areas like this, so Susie Mercer’s links with Wheldrake may be enough to give her victory in what could be a difficult year for the Tories.

Prediction

1 Independent seat

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May

Rural West and Strensall wards reviewed

Strensall Ward

The Strensall ward is home to 8,334 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 80% of residents own their home. 13% rent privately and 6% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 84.2% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 21.1% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Rural West was held by the Liberal Democrats in the last decade. The Tories have gradually increased their share of the vote since then and in 2015 secured both seats.

Retiring Councillor Helen Douglas is standing down, Helen Douglas has had a short but colourful career in local government having started off representing Clifton for Labour before making the long walk across the Council chamber to join the Tories. She is replaced as a candidate by an equally controversial choice in Sian Wiseman who represented the ward following the 2011 elections. However, she was another who left the Conservative Group preferring to sit as an Independent following a controversy involving her, family owned, development land which might have been affected by an emerging Local Plan. After sitting out the last 4 years she returns to the the Tory fold.. Sian Wiseman is well known locally but whether local electors have forgotten and forgiven her dalliance remains to be seen. The other retiring Tory Councillor Paul Doughty is seeking re-election. He also lives in the ward.

The main challenge will come from well know local LibDem candidate Tony Fisher. He is a former Councillor for the area and polled strongly when contesting the ward in 2015. He is a trenchant supporter of the Green Belt and is likely to garner a few extra votes this time round.

Prediction

1 LibDem 1 Tory

Rural West Ward

The Rural West ward is home to 7,963 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 86% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 5% are social tenants. There are 154 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 86.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 16.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution.

Rural West was held by the Liberal Democrats in the last decade. The Tories have gradually increased their share of the vote since then and in 2015 secured both seats. One is held by the retiring Council Leader Ian Gillies, who is standing down after 12 years. He is replaced by an even older candidate in Robin Garland who was a feature of the local, political scene until about 30 years ago. The other seat is held by arch Brexiteer Chris Steward who lives some distance away in the Micklegate ward.

An Independent did win one seat in the ward briefly over 12 years ago. There are no Independent candidates standing this year.

The challengers will be the LibDems. Their main hope will rest with Ann Hook who lives locally. The second LibDem candidates (James Barker) holds the unfortunate distinction of being the only one of the party’s candidates who declined to say on his nomination form whether he lived in the ward..

If the predicted meltdown in Tory support actually happens, then the beneficiary is likely to be a LibDem candidate,

Prediction

1 LibDem 1 Tory

So who will win the York Council elections

Osbaldwick/Derwent and Rawcliffe wards reviewed

Osbaldwick and Derwent Ward

The Osbaldwick and Derwent ward is home to 8,114 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 83% of residents own their home. 9% rent privately and 6% are social tenants. There are 79 Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are significantly below average. 90.91% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 9.09% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution. In the early part of the last decade redoubtable LibDem Campaigner Janet Greenwood held the Dunnington Ward while Jonathan Morley represented Osbaldwick. Jonathan Morley has now moved on to be the LibDem candidate in Heworth.

At the last election the ward was split between a Conservative – who lived in the Dunnington part of the ward – and Osbaldwick Independent Mark Walters, who had the smallest majority in any ward at that time.

The Conservative Jennie Brooks is standing down to be replaced on the ballot paper by Martin Rowley (who doesn’t live in the ward) and one John Zimnoch. The latter apparently made some injudicious comments on social media a few years ago which appeared to condone drink driving. His chances of election seem slim

The ward on its present boundaries has never elected candidates who don’t live in the ward.

The LibDems, who had consistently put forward Dunnington based candidates in the past, have this time inexplicably nominated someone who lives on the other side of the river Ouse. Their second candidate (Ian Eiloart) does however live in Osbaldwick.

Independent Mark Walters makes a return. He has been a principal opponent of development in the area fighting a losing battle against the Rowntree Derwenthorpe estate. His views are right wing and populist but he has been effective in asking questions which the political establishment would rather not answer. He has a good chance of re-election.

Who will join him is anyone’s guess but the Tories will expect to retain their seat.

Prediction

1 Independent 1 Tory.

Rawcliffe Ward

The Rawcliffe ward is home to 11,946 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 80% of residents own their home. 10% rent privately and 8% are social tenants. There are 164 Council homes in the area. 1.7% are out of work. Crime levels are about average. 88.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 25.9% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2). Source

Elections

Ward boundary changes mean that voting trends need to be viewed with caution.

The Rawcliffe area was strongly LibDem for many years with first – two time Lord Mayor – Irene Waudby and later her son, Mark, representing the ward.

Labour surprisingly won the seats in 2011 only to be replaced by three Tories in 2015.

The LibDems will be looking to complete their comeback in the area and have managed to nominate a Waudby as a candidate. It is however Sam – wife of Mark – who is one of their flag bearers. Rather surprisingly Mark is contesting the neighbouring Clifton ward in which they both now live. The LibDems have, however, managed to nominate two other candidates who do live in Rawcliffe and this may prove to be decisive, when electors cast their ballots.

Of the 3 existing Conservative Councillors, two are seeking re-election in the ward. Peter Dew, who currently holds the transport policy portfolio for the coalition, also lives in the ward. His “Lendal Bridge” moment relates to a lamentable lack of effective action to repair roads in the City.

He is joined once again by Stuart Rawlings who does not live in the ward. He is understood to have ambitions to be the next Tory Council Group Leader.

The third Tory Councillor Sam Lisle will try his luck in the distant Westfield Ward on 2nd May

Labour support declined substantially in 2015. Somewhat surprisingly, they have imported as a candidate the controversial Dave Merrett, from Micklegate. We doubt that Dave Merrett will ever recover politically from his stubborn support for levying fines on motorists using Lendal Bridge and Coppergate when he was the transport chief.

Prediction

2 LibDem 1 Tory

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Huntington and Micklegate Wards reviewed

Micklegate

The Micklegate ward is home to 12,927 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 51% of residents own their home. 34% rent privately and 13% are social tenants. There are 544 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average. 90.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%). 36.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source

Elections

Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year.. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillor were elected. Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as an explanation for his drop in popularity.

Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office. Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where is now lives.

There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.

The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Councils Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker who is already on M. P. Rachel Maskell’s payroll.

The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat.

Huntington and New Earswick

The Huntington ward is home to 12,689 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 70% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 20% are social tenants. There are 104 Council homes in the area. 2.7% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average. 92.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%). 25.0% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source

Elections

This ward has consistently returned Liberal Democrat Councillors since local government reorganisation in 1995. One of the current representatives, Keith Orrell, is the City’s Lord Mayor. Another is veteran Councillor Carol Runciman who has Executive responsibility for Social Care.

The Tories are fielding unknowns. They either don’t live in the area or declined to reveal their address on the nomination form. This was another ward in which the Tories failed to nominate any candidates in 2011.

This ward has seen a major redevelopment at the Community Stadium site and some concerns remain about parking and traffic in the Monks Cross area.

All in all though, it is difficult to see anything other than another LibDem win in Huntington

Prediction

3 LibDem seats

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Hull Road and Micklegate Ward reviews

Hull Road

The Hull Road ward is home to 15,055 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 48% of residents own their home. 32% rent privately and 18% are social tenants. There are 615 Council homes in the area. 0.7% are out of work. Crime levels are below average. 63.6% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. This is worse than any other ward. (York average 88.6%). 9.09% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%). Source

Elections

This ward has been won consistently by Labour. It now encompasses the University of York campus.

The contest is given added interest this time round as one of the Labour victors in 2015 has left the party and is standing as an Independent candidate. Hillary Shephard – formerly a Council employee and shop steward – was on the moderate wing of the Labour Party. Hull Road Labour is now hard left dominated with some students activists believed to be heavily influential. As with all Independents the hurdle that she faces is to mobilise sufficient help to get leaflets delivered and electors canvassed.

One of the Labour candidates, Michael Pavlovic ,won a by-election in 2017. It was held on the same day as the General Election which was used by many electors to protest to Mrs May about her wasting their time.

Unusually two of the Labour candidates live at the same address in the ward. They say they moved to study in the City as recently as 2013.

Prediction

3 Labour seats

Micklegate

Elections

Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillors were elected. Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as the explanation for his drop in popularity.

Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor, Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office. Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where he now lives.

There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.

The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in Micklegate in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Council’s Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker already on M.P. Rachel Maskell’s payroll.

The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat.