Deaths and test results
THREE (3) additional deaths announced by York Hospital Trust today. One occurred on Wednesday, one on Thursday and one yesterday. They bring the cumulative second wave York and Scarborough hospitals death toll to 77.
TWENTY TWO (22) additional positive test results announced today. Brings cumulative total to 5612
Latest validated rate per 100k population figure is 116.8
Ten of York’s 24 neighbourhoods now have a case rate below 100.
Only Heslington is now above the 200 case threshold.
Infection numbers in Clifton Without/Skelton have fallen.
Interactive map
Interesting interactive map from https://electionmaps.uk/covid19-tier-map allows single click access to current and historic COVID rates across England and Wales.
Hospital capacity
According to media reports, on November 23rd there were 129 coronavirus patients in the York Hospital Trust’s units – 71 in York, 55 in Scarborough and three in community hospitals – 14 of them in critical care. York Hospital has created space for up to 197 Covid patients, a board of directors meeting heard.
In wave one of the pandemic the hospital admitted 786 coronavirus patients and in wave two so far they have seen 573.
The hospital saw its highest level of staff off sick recently – 6.7 per cent of the workforce – due to people testing positive for coronavirus or being asked to self-isolate by contact tracers. Up to 90 people a day were off because of the test and trace service.
Council commentary
The York Council has updated its commentary on the pandemic. It can be read by clicking here and is reproduced below.
People with Covid Symptoms
• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 24.11.20 there had been 161 total covid triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 653 in the 7 day period to 20.9.20.
• As at 26.11.20, the Covid Symptom App estimates 547.9 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 4,637 people). The peak rate was 1,116.3 on 31.10.20.
Diagnosed cases (Pillar 1&2 combined)
• As at 26.11.20 York has had 5,576 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 2,647.4 per 100,000 of population. The rate in York is above the national average (2,407.8) but below the regional average (3,773.5).
• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (23.11.20) is Green.
• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 18.11.20 to 24.11.20 in York is 105.9 (using data published on Gov.uk on 26.11.20).
• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 15.11.20 to 21.11.20 was 132.5. The national and regional averages at this date were 209.1 and 297.1 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 26.11.20).
• As at 24.11.20, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 only) was 6.64%. The national and regional averages are 8.2% and 10.5% respectively.
• As at 26.11.20 York University reported 47 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20
• As at 22.11.20 York St. John reported 9 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20
Contact Tracing
• Since 28.5.20 a total of 4,413 laboratory confirmed CYC Covid cases have been uploaded into the NHS Test and Trace system and 3,889 of the cases have been completed (88.1%). 12,664 ‘contacts’ have been identified and 7,517 of these have been completed (59.4%). Source: PHE Report.
• Local Tracing of Cases: Between 22.10.20 and 20.11.20, 302 ‘actionable’ positive COVID-19 CYC cases have been referred to the local contact tracing service. 301 of the referrals (99.7%) have been actioned and 1 referral (0.3%) is still ‘in progress’. Of the referrals actioned, 225 (74.8%) were successful and 76 (25.2%) were uncontactable.
Cases in Residential Settings / Schools
• As at 25.11.20 there were 4 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).
• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases) in a residential care setting in York was reported on 25.11.20 (1 home).
• In the 7 days up to 22.11.20 there were 20 children of primary and secondary school age who tested positive (across 8 different schools).
COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital
• As at 25.11.20 there were 52 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General and Acute beds. The previous figure on 24.11.20 was 58.
• As at 25.11.20 there were 7 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 0 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures on 24.11.20 were 7 and 0 respectively.
• As at 25.11.20 there had been 0 patients admitted with suspected Covid-19 and 3 with confirmed Covid-19 in the previous 24 hours
Recovery from Covid-19
• Between 13.4.20 and 22.11.20, 236 CYC residents had recovered and been successfully discharged from York hospital after needing NHS care for symptoms linked to covid-19 infection. 18 people were discharged in the most recent week.
R Number
• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 20.11.20 was estimated to be in the range 1.0 to 1.1. The upper end of the range has fallen since the previous estimate (1.0 to 1.2) on 13.11.20.
Deaths
The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it provides a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:
• ONS weekly data: For deaths occurring up to 13th November 2020 and registered up to 21st November 2020, 185 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (91 in hospital, 80 in care homes, 10 at home and 4 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 87.84 which is lower than the national average of 102.48. There have been 13 Covid-19 deaths of CYC residents reported by ONS in the last 6 weeks (Weeks 41 to 46).
• ‘Excess’ deaths – all causes (ONS). In week 46 (7 Nov to 13 Nov), 19 deaths (all causes) occurred for York residents, which is 15 fewer than the average weekly number for 2014-18. Over the last 25 weeks the total number of deaths in York (all causes) has been 61 fewer than the average for the equivalent weeks in 2014-18.
• Local Registrar data: In the weekly data received on 23.11.20 (for deaths occurring up to 18.11.20), a cumulative total of 180 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 82.3, with an age range of 53-104. The age profile of those dying in York is older than the national average. 91 of the 180 were male (50.6%), less than the national average (55.3%). 75 people (41.7%) died in nursing /care homes; (the national average is 27.26%). In addition 14 people (7.78%) who normally resided in nursing/care homes in the CYC area, died in hospital.