The media are reporting that Fulford school is closing because of a very high level of COVID infections and contacts.
There are 107 cases among York school pupils
York hospital and primary care is under “immense pressure,” says public health director Sharon Stoltz at a York Council meeting this evening. She says healthcare staff are demoralised and worried about another wave. “Many are off work with COVID, self-isolating, caring for children who are self isolating or off sick with mental health problems”
Change to government policy for relaxations on 19th July
The guidance for vulnerable people has been updated (click link)
The government is changing its stance on the removal of restrictions on 19th July.
After July 19 businesses and large events will be “supported and encouraged to use certification in high risk settings to help limit the spread of infections in their venues”. Certification will involve asking attendees to prove their vaccination status byshowing the NHS app; showing a NHS text or email proving they have had a recent negative lateral flow test in the past 48 hours; or showing a positive PCR test within the last six months suggesting they will have immunity from the virus.
New guidance will also be issued for people who are clinically vulnerable, which will encourage them to meet others outside and to check the vaccination status of their social contacts.
the Government will “recommend” that people in England continue to wear face coverings in crowded areas, such as on public transport. It is understood the guidance will apply to indoor settings that are less likely to be ventilated and where people are likely to come across others with whom they do not normally mix.
Under updated guidance, the instruction to “work from home” will be lifted on July 19, but businesses will be told to avoid allowing all staff to return at once, “We expect and recommend a gradual return to the workplace over the summer.”
Hospital patient numbers and deaths
Hospital patients numbers edging up. Now two in intensive care.
Test results
130 new positive test results today. Brings cumulative total up to 15,126
The number of cases in the City has risen from 854 to 876
The rate /100k population has increased to 415.94.
The infection rate has leveled off but is not yet showing any signs of a sustained fall
The infection rate in York has now fallen below the regional average. It remains above the national average
Neighbourhoods
The Heslington/University neighbourhood is no longer in the above 400 infection rate banding.
11 neighbourhoods now have very high infection levels
Vaccinations
606 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Sunday)
A significant milestone was passed, with more than 60% of York residents now having received both their first and second doses.
Tests
8238 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 7th July 2021.
Of these, 10.6% were positive. That is more tha the 10.4% found during the previous period.
3335 “lateral flow” tests were also conducted on 11th July 2021
111 additional positive test results today, Brings the cumulative total up to 15,126.
The number of cases in the City has increased from 834 to 854
The rate /100k population has edged back up to 405.49 today. Overall numbers remain high, but they are no longer trending upwards.
Neighbourhoods
Vaccinations
1682 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Saturday)
Tests
8169 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 6th July 2021
Of these, 10.4% were positive. That represents an increase on the previous recorded figure of 10.2%.
In addition, 1606 “lateral flow” tests were also completed on 10th July.
“Grab a Jab”
In parts of the Westfield Ward in York, 1 in 5 eligible adults haven’t yet had even their first dose of coronavirus vaccine.
Nearly half those eligible haven’t had their second dose.
Anyone can now get a second vaccination if they had the first jab 8 weeks or longer ago.
It couldn’t be easier or quicker to get a free jab.
Please take a few minutes to pop down to Askham Bar (next to Tesco on Tadcaster Road) or to one of the many local surgery and pharmacy sites which are advertising the service each day
102 positive test results today. Brings cumulative total up to 15,015
The number of cases in the City has fallen from 865 to 834
The rate /100k population has fallen below 400 for the first time for nearly a week. It is likely to edge up again tomorrow before stabilising at around 400.
Neighbourhoods
Vaccinations
1517 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Friday)
Tests
8108 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 5th July.
Of these, 10.2% were positive. That is lower than the 10.3% positivity rate found during the previous period
1985 “lateral flow” tests were also completed on 9th July 2021
128 positive test results today, Brings the cumulative total up to 14,913.
The number of cases in the City has reduced from 872 to 865
The rate /100k population falls to 410.71. The rate is on course to stablise at around 400 over the next few days.
Some of the slides used at a Council meeting which took place on Wednesday have now been published, They include some interesting information about the spread of infections. The following graph confirms that the majority of cases are connected with groups still in education.
Neighbourhoods
Infection rates continue to fall at Heslington/University. It no longer has the highest rate in the City. The highest infection rate can now be found in Tang Hall
Both Tang Hall and Fulford Road/Clementhorpe are now experiencing the highest number of COVID cases recorded since the pandemic began in early 2020
The Council have published information on how vaccination levels vary for different age groups/occupations
Figures released on Wednesday suggest that there is some SPARE CAPACITY in the vaccination programme
Vaccinations
1296 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Thursday)
Tests
8235 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 4th July 2021
Of these, 10.3% were positive. That represents a reduction on the 10.5% positivity found during the previous period.
2669 “lateral flow” tests were also completed on 8th July 2021
Council commentary updates
The data is accurate as at 8.00 a.m. on Friday 09.07.21. Some narrative for the data covering the latest period is provided here below:
People with Covid Symptoms
• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 6.7.21 there had been 71 total covid telephony triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 192 in the 7 day period to 22.9.20.
• As at 8.7.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 723 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 3,807 people). The peak rate was 1,283 on 7.1.21.
Diagnosed cases
• As at 8.7.21 York has had 14,785 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 7,020 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (7,750) and regional (8,291) averages.
• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the number of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (5.7.21) is Red.
• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 30.6.21 to 6.7.21 in York is 398.4 (839 cases). (Using data published on Gov.uk on 8.7.21).
• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 27.6.21 to 3.7.21 in York was 414 (872 cases). The national and regional averages at this date were 263.9 and 333.2 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 8.7.21).
• York is currently ranked 119th out of 149 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England with a rank of 1 indicating the lowest 7 day rate.
• For the 7 day period 26.6.21.to 2.7.21, the number of cases in each ward varied from 3 to141 and rates varied from 72.3 to 929.7 per 100,000.
• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 27.6.21 to 3.7.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 62.5 (31 cases). The national and regional averages were 47.3 and 56.3 respectively.
• As at 6.7.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 PCR tests only) was 13.67%. The national and regional averages are 10.2% and 13.5% respectively.
• As at 6.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 Lateral Flow Tests only) was 1.27%. The national and regional averages are 1.0% and 1.4% respectively.
• As at 6.7.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 tests only) was 1.0%. The national average is 1.1%.
• As at 2.7.21 York University reported 240 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.
• As at 28.6.21 York St. John reported 4 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.
Contact Tracing
• Local Contact Tracing. Between 10.3.21 and 2.7.21, 1,239 referrals had been actioned by the local contact tracing service. Of the referrals actioned, 1,158 (93.5%) were successful and 81 (6.5%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible. (NB on the 10.3.21 the local CYC team became responsible for contacting all cases rather than just those that the national team could not contact).
Cases in Residential Care Settings
• As at 7.7.21 there were 3 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).
• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases of either a staff member or resident) in a residential care setting in York were reported by PHE on 2.7.21 (1 home).
Cases amongst School Aged Children
• In the 7 days up to 5.7.21 there were 107 children of primary or secondary school age who tested positive (across 34 different schools).
COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital
• As at 7.7.21 there were 15 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General/Acute beds. The previous figure was 5 on 29.6.21. The peak number was 157 on 19.1.21.
• As at 7.7.21 there was 1 confirmed Covid-19 patient and 0 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures were 1 and 0 on 29.6.21. The peak number for people in ITU was 19 on 10.5.20.
R Number
• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 2.7.21 was estimated to be in the range 1.2 to 1.4. The previous estimate was (1.2 to 1.5) on 25.6.21.
Variants of Concern
• In the latest month for which data is available, 816 cases in York (with a specimen date between 5th June 2021 and 4th July 2021) had been processed in a laboratory which is able to carry out the required sequencing in order to identify Variants of Concern (VOC) or Variants under Investigation (VUI). Of these, there had been 802 cases (genomically confirmed or provisional genotyping) of the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC-21APR-02) which was first identified in India.
Total Vaccinations
• As at 7.7.21 a total of 143,963 CYC residents have had the first dose of the vaccine. This represents 82.5% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York.
• As at 7.7.21 a total of 100,904 CYC residents have had both doses of the vaccine. This represents 57.9% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York.
• Source: PHE Covid-19 Situational Awareness Explorer
Deaths
The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data provides a breakdown by age and gender. For both data sources a death from Covid-19 is said to have occurred when Covid-19 has been recorded on the death certificate. The most recently available data is summarised below:
• ONS Weekly data: In the most recent period (Week 25: 19.6.21 to 25.6.21) 0 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents. There has been one recorded covid death between week 18 and week 25.
• ONS Cumulative data: Since the start of the pandemic, for deaths occurring up to 18th June 2021 and registered up to 26th June 2021, 397 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (228 in hospital, 136 in care homes, 25 at home/elsewhere and 8 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 188.49 which is lower than the national average of 232.76
• Age / Gender breakdown (using registrar data): The average age of the CYC residents who died was 82.1, with an age range of 44-104. The age profile of the CYC residents who have died is older than the national average (79.6% were aged 75+ compared with 72.9% nationally). 47.7% of the CYC residents who died were male. The national average is 54.4%.
According to updated government figures, there were no deaths of York residents in any setting in the City during the week ending 25th June 2021. The cumulative death toll remains at 379.
Test results
143 positive test results were announced today. Brings the cumulative total up to 14,785.
The number of cases in the City has risen from 850 to 872. This is the largest case number recorded since 16th January 2021
The rate /100k population has crept up to 414.04. There are hopes that the rate may fall below 400 over the weekend.
Neighbourhoods
Case numbers are continuing to decline in the Heslington/University neighbourhood
Vaccinations
1279 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Wednesday)
Tests
8243 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 3rd July 2021.
Of these, 10.5% were positive. That is the same positivity rate as was also found during the previous period.
3401 “lateral flow” tests were also undertaken on 7th July 2021
96 new positive test results today. Brings the cumulative total up to 14,499.
The number of cases in the City has risen from 852 to 867
The rate /100k population has risen to 411.66. The rate is expected to remain at around that level over then next few days
Neighbourhoods
According to a report to a meeting taking place tomorrow (see below) as many as 525 students at the University of York are now self isolating. The report goes on to say ” Generally the drivers behind this rise in infections appears to be increasing social activity – inline with the stage three unlocking since May”
Vaccinations
1636 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Monday)
Tests
7817 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 1st July 2021
Of these, 10.8% were positive. That is the same proportion as were found during the previous period.
In addition 3145 “lateral flow” tests were competed on 5th July 2021
Outbreak Management Board
Some interesting – and sobering – reports being discussed tomorrow. Made more relevant by pending government decisions on face coverings, social distancing, the reopening of offices etc.
126 new cases today brings the cumulative total up to 14,403
The number of cases in the City has increased from 808 to 852
The rate /100k population (404.54) has risen to over 400 for the first time since 17th January 2021. The level looks likely to be fairly stable over the next few days.
Neighbourhoods
Vaccinations
1126 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Sunday)
Tests
7742 tests were completed during the week ending 30th June 2021.
Of these, 10.9% were positive. This is higher that the 10.6% positivity rate found during the previous period.
3783 “lateral flow” tests were also conducted on 4th July.
128 positive test results were announced today. Brings the cumulative total up to 14,277
The number of cases in the City has increased from 761 to 808.
The rate /100k population is 383.65. It is trending to reach 408.34.
There are very early signs that the rate of increase in infections may be slowing. The 7 day rolling case number average (which is less influenced by weekend fluctuations in testing rates) may reach a peak early this week,.
Too soon to be sure though.
It is possible that the current surge in infection rates in York will exceed the peak seen in the autumn (442,53 on 18/10/20). We have reset one of the graphs below to contrast the profile of the current wave with what was seen in Dec/Jan. The winter peak eventually reached 670.91 on 8/1/21.
Neighbourhoods
There are now eight neighbourhoods with very high infection rates
Vaccinations
1506 vaccinations were completed yesterday (Saturday)
Tests
7587 PCR tests were completed during the week ending 29th June 2021.
Of these, 10.6% were positive. This represents a small increase on the 10.5% positivity found during the previous period.
1605 “lateral flow” tests were also undertaken on 3rd July.
