Local Plan – Now officials forecast a 14% increase in York’s population over the next 20 years……… that is 31,000 extra people!

Big City small

It look’s like the new Council will have to make major changes in the Council’s planning department. Officials there seem to have been brainwashed with the flawed thinking of the last discredited “Big City” Labour administration.

Population growth forecasts, produced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS), have reduced dramatically in recent months. They currently show the City’s population growing from 203,000 to 224,000 (approx 21,000 people) between 2012 and 2031.

 With an average of 2.2 people residing at each dwelling, that is equivalent to a requirement for about 470 additional homes each year.

Even a population growth of 1000 a year will have a major impact on the City’s infrastructure and Green Belt setting.

A report being considered on Thursday suggests that the City’s population should grow by 31,000 between (the base date of) 2012 and 2031.

That could mean the City having to find space for 758 additional dwellings each year. It has built, on average,  less than 400 a year since 2011.

The number of births in the City exceeds the number of deaths by about 1000 a year – also implying a demand for about 470 additional homes

So there still appears to be little agreement on numbers.

Assuming that the City will want to cater for some sustainable economic growth, then a target of 575 additional homes being provided each year still looks to be about right.

That was the figure agreed in the Draft Local Plan published  in February 2011 – the Plan that Labour scrapped when they seized control of the Council.

York Council budget surplus hides underlying problems – Public service quality hits buffers

The York Council had an underspend against its revenue budget of £688,000 in the last financial year.

Most of the surplus came from a £2 million improvement in the central services budget which is heavily influenced by external factors such as favourable interest rate levels.

Worryingly all the major service departments were overspent with environmental services (which includes waste management activities) racking up a £941,000 overspend and Adult Social Care (services for the elderly and those with disabilities) came in £528,000 above expected expenditure levels.

An overspend on children’s services was blamed on difficulties with fostering and adoption services.

Landfill Tax payment increased to £4.2 million with 52,370 tonnes of waste dumped.

There was a £325,000 reduction in car parking income compared to estimates. This is partly blamed on unreliability issues at the pay on exit barriers installed at the Marygate car park. Most of the Environmental Services underspend was due to poor performance on waste management.

Following the delays to, and subsequent collapse of, the older persons homes strategy that account showed a shortfall of over £1 million last year. There has been a significant overspend of £1,021k within the Elderly Persons Homes budgets due to utilities, cleaning, catering and repair and maintenance (£325k), increased staffing ratios (£237k) and temporary staffing costs (£332k)

Public Health overspends (£658,000) are put down to the demand for genitourinary (basically sexual diseases) services being higher in York than the rest of North Yorkshire.

The Council is making a payment of £1.3 million to the Leeds City Region business rates pool.

The overspends are a concern as they carry over into 2015/16. Taxpayers will be looking with concern at the first quarter outturn figures (due on 24th September) to see whether there have been any improvements.

The last Labour Council approved a budget for the current year which included £11.9 million in cuts and efficiency savings.

Many of these look like they were built on – to put it kindly – shaky assumption.

Click for full list

Click for full list

The Council has also published updated performance information. Performance in many areas is stable although several wage level, public health,  and waste management indicators are below target.

The outturn report is due to be discussed at a Council meeting taking place on Thursday.