So who will win the York Council elections?

Clifton & Copmanthorpe reviewed

Clifton is home to 10,007 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 51% of residents own their home. 744 people are Council tenants. 1.7% are out of work. Crime levels are above average.  85.7% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 86.8%). 31.6% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 25.7). Source

Elections

The 2015 elections were held on the same day as a General Election. Hence the turnout was almost double the number usually voting at a Council poll. Voting patterns did not mirror the General Election result particularly in the York Central Constituency where Labour had a big parliamentary vote but, following a poor performance when in control of the Council, found ballot box support collapsing. A reduced turnout is expected on 2nd May.

Labour have won the Clifton ward for a number of elections. It is as long ago as the 1980s that the Tories last seriously challenged in the area.

In 2015 two former Labour Councillors (David Scott and Ken King) stood in the ward as Independents. They had quit the Labour group in response to a number of calamitous decisions taken by the then party leadership. There was a considerable fall in Labour support although they held on to both seats. Neither of the former Councillors are standing this time.

Both the current Labour Councillors work for MP Rachel Maskell. One chooses not  say if she lives in the area.

None of the opposition parties have established themselves as the natural alternative to Labour so it looks like there will be no change.

Prediction

2 Labour seats

Copmanthorpe

The Copmanthorpe ward  is home to 4115 residents. It was split from the Rural West Ward as recently as 2015. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 87% of residents own their home. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are below average.  92.8% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 86.8%). 28.6% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 25.7). Source

Elections

The 2015 elections were held on the same day as a General Election. Hence the turnout was almost double the number usually voting at a Council election. Voting patterns did not mirror the General Election result but, following a poor performance when in control of the Council, Labour found ballot box support collapsing. A lower turnout is expected on 2nd May.

This is another seat where a former Tory Councillor is standing as an Independent. David Carr was actually the Leader of the Council when, following an ill judged attempt to smear two of his LibDem coalition partners with what turned out to be bogus allegations, he was forced by his colleagues to quit.

As a well known Parish Councillor David Carr may fancy his chances of success.

He is opposed by a Tory who has been “parachuted” into the area from another part of York.

The LibDems have a well known local candidate (Richard Brown) who came second in 2015. It is unclear how effective Richard Browns campaign has been but if the Tory vote splits then he might be the beneficiary.

Another former Councillor, the Green party’s Lars Kramm who currently sits for Micklegate, is also contesting the election. He has recently moved into Copmanthorpe Ward..

This is a difficult result t to predict but if the expected Tory vote meltdown occurs then the LibDems could be the winners

Prediction

1 LibDem seat

Who will win the York Council Elections?

Acomb and Bishopthorpe reviewed

9269 people live in the Acomb Ward. 73% own their own home. 15% are social renters with 393 occupying Council houses. 1.9% claim out of work benefits. Life expectancy is about average for the City. Crime levels are below the City average. 84.2% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 86.8%). 16.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 25.7). Source

Elections

The 2015 elections were held on the same day as a General Election. Hence the turnout was almost double the number usually voting at a Local Election. Voting patterns did not mirror the General Election result particularly in the York Central Constituency where Labour had a big parliamentary vote but, following a poor performance in control of the Council, found ballot box support collapsing. A smaller turnout is expected on 2nd May.

Acomb was a safe Labour seat for many years. In 2015 their support plummeted, and one of the two seats went to a popular local Tory (Keith Myers) Long term Councillor Tracy Simpson Laing lost her seat and she was replaced by Strensall based Stuart Barnes.  The other parties performed poorly and are likely to be squeezed in what is the only genuine Labour/Tory marginal in the City.

Former Labour Councillor Brian Watson is standing as an Independent. He was de-selected by Labour in 2015 after representing the Guildhall Ward for many years. Now he is trying his luck in the ward in which he lives. A moderate socialist, he may take votes from the hard-left backed Labour ticket. Whether he can regain a seat will, as with all Independents, depend on how many leaflets he can deliver.

The election has generated extra interest because returning Tory Councillor Keith Myers is next in line to by York’s Lord Mayor. He will take office at the end of May if he can retain his seat. Not since Peter Gales, a Labour Councillor also for the Acomb Ward, failed in a bid for re-election in 1975 has the destination of the Lord Mayoralty been so unpredictable.

Both the existing Councillors have reasonable local reputations. If national concerns are foremost in electors’ minds then the Tories could lose their seat. However, a majority may opt to back experience.

Prediction

1 Labour seat

1 Conservative seat

Bishopthorpe

Bishopthorpe is one of the smaller wards in York with 4147 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 88% of residents own their home. 1.9% are out of work. Crime levels are amongst the lowest in the City. 94.1% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 86.8%). 29.4% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 25.7). Source

Elections

The 2015 elections were held on the same day as a General Election. Hence the turnout was almost double the number usually voting at a Council election. Voting patterns did not mirror the General Election result but, following a poor performance in control of the Council, Labour found ballot box support collapsing. A smaller turnout is expected on 2nd May.

Bishopthorpe has been a safe Conservative seat for over a decade. The only interruption to their tenure came in 2003 when it was won by the LibDems. Since then the LibDem support has dropped away and was only 6% at the last election. The ward is the first to be reviewed where a retiring Tory Councillor is seeking re-election as an Independent. John Galvin was de-selected by the Tories last year ostensibly on the grounds that he was too old. He will not have been pleased to note that another octogenarian was subsequently selected by the Tories to contest a nearby ward. The real reason for the change of candidate had more to do with John Galvin’s uncompromising style on the Council.

The Tories have selected a relative unknown to contest the election.

Carole Greene, having previously contested the seat as both a LibDem and later as an Independent, is now trying as a Green party candidate.

John Galvin was an archetypical Tory having worked for the party for many years. His abrasive style doesn’t enamour him to everyone and there will be those in the village who may be looking for a change of approach. However, at a time when the Conservative party is in turmoil both locally and nationally, it may well be a good time to be seeking election as an Independent. It certainly looks like experience will be very limited on the new Council, so the return of some seasoned campaigners may be in the City’s best interests

Prediction

1 Independent seat

York Council election manifestos compared

5. Leisure

York’s cultural attractions have strengthened in recent years. The Art Gallery/Museums Trust is putting on a wide range of events while the Libraries management team have recently been awarded a 15 year extension to their contract. York has a strong theatre presence and attracted the new Shakespeare outdoor venue last year

Things are less promising for informal sport and open space provision. Playing fields in west York are being built on. Outdoor games areas are being closed and bowling greens lost.

All parties are promising to plant more trees, although none yet recognise that more needs to be invested in maintaining existing tree stocks.

Rather belatedly, the adverse impact of the cuts made to youth provision 7 years ago, are being recognised. All parties promise to do more to entertain teenagers.

The LibDems and Greens commit to a rolling programme of play equipment renewal.

York council election manifestos compared

4. Housing and Health

There has been a small reduction in the Council housing stock in recent years. This is the resulted from the central government policy which saw discounts increased for “Right to Buy”.

In response the Council has started to build new Council houses and has announced ambitious – by recent standards – plans to build over 600 additional homes. It has also started to buy homes on the open market to add to the rented housing pool.

On homelessness, hyperbole rules in the manifestos. All, of course, will end it. While the numbers on the housing waiting list has been stable, the numbers of rough sleepers has fluctuated. Labour support the Manchester/Finland model (where keys to a home are given to rough sleepers without any behaviour, substance abuse or mental health treatment conditions (That’ll go down well with the neighbours)

meanwhile the coalition is building on sub-urban playing fields and has made little attempt to find replacement open spaces, sports facilities or parks. Partly as a result of this, the City has an obesity problem. Life expectancy in some poorer wards is now relatively low.

Hopefully the new Council will realise that the is more to creating a home than simply bricks and mortar.

NB: Only 1 of the 202 Council candidates – who have declared where they live – is a Council tenant.

Council election manifestos compared

2. Crime, economy and education

All parties are keen to drive up wage levels. None can say how a local authority might achieve this worthy aim. Labour make the bogus claim that wage rates are falling in the City (they aren’t, although overtime earnings reduced last year).

Some see the way ahead being for the Council to give a monopoly to local suppliers for goods and services. What the knock-on effect on Council Tax levels would be is anyone’s guess.

Labour want to slow the York Central project taking it out of the hands of “developers”. Quite where they would get the investment for a pure public sector approach is also anyone’s guess.

There are clear choices on a Tourism Tax. Such a Tax could not be introduced unilaterally. It would either require central government facilitation or a voluntary agreement (chickens/Christmas anyone?).

The Council has little influence these days on local schools, which are funded directly by central government and have their own independent governing arrangements. Similarly, the Council has little direct influence on policing activities. It could however be stricter with its licensing rules.

York Council election manifesto promises

York Council election manifestos (Updated)

Postal voters in York will start to receive their ballot papers next week in preparation for the Council elections taking place on 2nd May

Some details of policies are emerging with the Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat parties now having published their manifestos “on line”. Click the links below to access them. Apparently the Conservatives haven’t published a 2019 manifesto. The link below is to their 2015 effort.

LibDem

Labour

Green

Conservative 2015

There are also 10 independents standing all with their own unique views. Those views vary from soft left to extreme right wing. Its anyone’s guess what policies they might pursue if elected. Most, however, lack active supporters, so just the task of getting an election address through everyone’s letterbox may be a challenge for some of them.

The Greens web site is a confused array of policy links with brevity and clarity a bit lacking.

NB. One presentational matter unites the parties. Most have opted to photograph their candidates “en masse”. The LibDems and Labour hold up placards or leaflets like a group of chauffeurs waiting outside the “Arrivals” gate at Manchester airport. The Greens – in the absence of placards – have hands to spare with most opting for a left handed version of a salute awkwardly reminiscent of that made famous by an Austrian some 80 years ago. The Tories don’t appear to have united their candidates yet to the point where individual or collective photos can actually be taken.