Where next?

The Prime Minister has promised to publish a road map, which will guide the nation out of lockdown, on Monday.

He is (rightly) downplaying the likelihood of a major early relaxation of restrictions.

It seems certain though that – on present trends – schools will reopen to all pupils in early March. The reopening plan is likely to involve regular testing of staff and teachers.

The table below compares the daily average number of new coronavirus cases being found during the two most recent periods of lockdown in the City (November compared to the present day)

The reducing case number profile is remarkably similar for both periods.

If the pattern continues, daily case numbers would fall below 20 before the beginning of March.

There is a warning for the future in what happened after lockdown 2 ended on 2nd December 2020, when more lax Tier 2 restrictions were put in place.

Case numbers continued to drop for about a week.

Thereafter, they rose increasingly quickly before peaking at 202.14 on 8th January 2021.

It has been a long and stressful road back from that point. It is progress which must not be put at risk.

Deaths

Three additional hospital deaths have been reported today. One occurred on Monday and two on Tuesday. The cumulative total number of fatalities at the York and Scarborough Hospitals since 1st September 2020 has risen to 339.

Test results

Nineteen new positive test results were announced today. Brings the cumulative total up to 11,641.

As forecast there, has been a small increase in the case rate /100k population today. It has risen to 86.42

It is expected that the rate will resume its downward trend tomorrow.

Despite todays blip, York remains below the county, regional and national average infection rates.

Neighbourhoods

Todays blip has caused some neighbourhoods to move between blocks but no significant effect.

Haxby, which was for a time the area with the largest number of infections, now has fewer than three cases.

Vaccinations

Testing

4,445 PCR tests were conducted during the week ending 13th February.

Of these, 4.5% produced positive results.

The positivity rate continues to fall.

878 lateral flow tests were conducted on 17th February

Hospitals

The York Hospital Trust is now caring for 96 Coronavirus patients. This is down from a peak of 242 seen at the end of January

COVID-19 antibodies

According to the latest government figures issued today the number of people tested who have coronavirus anti bodies in the system has increased to 18.5%. (5th January – 1st February 2021)

When the tests started last April, only 7.5% recorded anti bodies.

Infections

Imperial College London’s React study, which tested more than 85,000 people in England between February 4 and 13, suggests infections have dropped to just one in 200 people.

The study suggested infections are halving every 15 days, and the R number – which expresses how many people the average infected individual spreads the virus to – is at 0.72.