Deaths and test results

There has been ONE additional positive test result announced today bringing the cumulative total up to 983.

There have been no further deaths

There has been no official analysis of the 19 recent new cases which have been seen over the last few days in the City. However, unofficial sources say that many of the victims were younger people aged under 40. The virus is rarely fatal for that age group although it is an unpleasant and potentially debilitating experience. The claim is born out by the fact that the have been no additional COVID-19 deaths recorded in the City for over a month.

Deaths and test results

An additional 6 positive test results have been announced today. That brings the cumulative total to 982.

The risk rating in the City remains at Red.

The current 7 day moving average of cases (2.86) was also seen at the end of March when the initial pandemic was starting to take hold in the City.

There had been a steady reduction in cases during June, July and early August.

There have been no additional deaths

Unfortunately the, seemingly relentless, upward trend in case numbers in the City cannot be explained by a corresponding increase in the number of tests completed.

The absence of any analysis of the characteristics (location, age, employment, holiday destination, family etc) of the recent cases – 18 in the last week – by health officials (see below) rather suggests that either they don’t have access to reliable “track and trace” results or that they prefer to keep residents in the dark.

A third explanation – that the cases are entirely random – might require a much deeper analysis?

Council commentary on figures

The York Council has updated its commentary on the latest figures. It is reproduced below (and is also available via the “open data” web site.

Diagnosed cases (Pillar 1&2 combined)

• As at 3.9.20 York has had 976 cases, a rate of 463.4 per 100,000 of population. The rate in York is lower than national (522.2) and regional (668.6) averages. The most recent cases in York had a test specimen date of 31.8.20 (3 cases).

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (31.8.20) is Red. The rating was triggered by a higher than ‘expected’ number of cases per 100 tests three times in the last 14 days (7 cases with a specimen date of 21.8.20, 5 cases with a specimen date of 25.8.20 and 5 cases with a specimen date of 30.8.20). We know that in recent weeks the number of cases have been low in York which has an effect on the thresholds used to determine the RAG rating – a small change can mean the difference between a red, amber and green rating. The exceedance report should not be considered in isolation but in context alongside other factors such as the recent total number of cases, COVID related deaths, outbreaks as well as changes in the local testing regime and local hotspot analysis.

• The latest weekly National Covid-19 Surveillance Report released on 28.8.20 and covering the week up to 25.8.20, showed that the 7 day rate of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population tested under Pillar 1 and 2 was 4.29 for York. York was ranked 25th out of 149 local authorities (with 1 being the lowest rate).

• The latest validated 7 day rate of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population for York is 4.75. This is for the 7 day period up to 28.8.20. This excludes cases with a sample date in the last few days due to partial data and lags in reporting. The rate in York is lower than national (12.8) and regional (16.6) averages.

• As at 31.8.20, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 only) was 0.58% (11 positives from 1,897 tests). The positivity rate in York is lower than national (1.4%) and regional (1.9%) averages.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it provides a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS weekly data: For deaths occurring up to 21st August 2020 and registered up to 29th August 2020, 171 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (83 in hospital, 76 in care homes, 9 at home and 3 in a hospice. The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 81.19 which is lower than the national average of 88.08. The most recent death reported for a York resident was in week 31 (25 to 31 July).

• ‘Excess’ deaths (ONS). In week 34 (15 August to 21 August), 25 deaths occurred in York, which is 3 fewer than the average weekly number for 2014-18. Over the last 13 weeks the total number of deaths in York has been 43 fewer than the average for the equivalent weeks in 2014-18.

• Local Registrar data: In the weekly data received on 31.8.20 (for deaths occurring up to 26.8.20), a cumulative total of 162 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 82.47, with an age range of 53-104. The age profile of those dying in York is slightly older than the national average. 86 of the 162 were male (53.1%), slightly less than the national average (55%). 81 of the deaths occurred in hospital and 81 were community deaths (e.g. at home or in a care home or hospice). 70 people (43.2%) died in nursing /care homes (the national average is 29.6%). In addition 13 people (8%) who normally resided in nursing/care homes in the CYC area, died in hospital.

Data on deaths occurring in hospital are shown below. Deaths are initially reported for York NHS Foundation Trust which includes Scarborough Hospital and the further breakdown by site can be delayed. From local registrar data, 58.5% of COVID-19 deaths occurring at York Hospital have been CYC residents. (NB NHS Trusts record deaths following a positive covid-19 test whereas ONS record deaths where covid-19 in mentioned on the death certificate so the totals are not the same).

• Deaths at York Hospital: As at 3.9.20, 134 deaths of people who had tested positive for COVID-19 and were being cared for at York Hospital have been reported. 214 deaths have been reported by the wider York NHS Trust.

Sharon Stoltz, Director for Public Health at City of York Council said:

“The low level of transmission in York is a result of the efforts and considerate attitude of people across the city. We all still have a role to play in stopping the spread of the virus by continuing social distancing. I would also encourage everyone to wear face coverings, wash their hands and if you have symptoms, self-isolate and arrange for a test.”

“These latest figures show that the rates of coronavirus cases since the pandemic started and during the last week remain well below regional and national averages. The percentage of tests which came back positive in the last seven days are also well below the regional and national averages.”

“It is important that these figures are considered alongside the exceedance rating which compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks. Currently due to the low number of cases in York a very small number can be the difference between green, amber and red.”

“We must all remain vigilant. Whilst York has robust, effective, timely and responsive measures in place, as a city we cannot be complacent.”