Deaths
THREE additional hospital deaths have been announced. One occurred on Tuesday and two on Wednesday.
Test results
SEVENTY TWO additional positive test results announced today. That brings the cumulative total number of cases in the City to 10,991
It seems that the rate of decline in infection levels may now be slowing. This feature was also seen in the middle of November when the post second wave decline in numbers markedly slowed.
Three weeks later it bottomed out at, a seven day average of, 17.4 (57.93 rate /100k population figure).
The infection rate now stands at 256.40 – down from the 269.22 seen yesterday
The rate in York is below the national average and on current trends will go below the regional average early next week. The number of cases in North Yorkshire is falling at a similar rate to York
Neighbourhoods
Five neighbourhoods with a case rate lower than 200.
Dunnington is now falling quickly towards the 100 case benchmark.
Vaccinations
National
Regional
York
According to one York GP practice, they are updating the local vaccination figures on their web site and social media channels. That would be a step in the right direction as communications on the progress being made each day, on vaccinating the four priority groups, is difficult to find.
& from Nimbuscare
Transmission Stats
Council commentary updates
The York Council has updated the following commentary on the pandemic on the open data web site. (NB. Sadly the Council is still referring to MSOA neighbourhoods as “wards”. The boundaries of the MSOAs are very different from ward boundaries).
People with Covid Symptoms
• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 25.1.21 there had been 225 total covid triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 653 in the 7 day period to 20.9.20.
• As at 27.1.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 545.7 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 4,789 people). The peak rate was 1,282.6 on 7.1.21.
Diagnosed cases
• As at 28.1.21 York has had 10,919 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 5,184.3 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (5,817.3 and regional (5,752) averages.
• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (25.1.21) is Green.
• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 20.1.21 to 26.1.21 in York is 208.9 (using data published on Gov.uk on 28.1.21).
• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 17.1.21 to 23.1.21 was 269.2. The national and regional averages at this date were 373.2 and 242.3 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 28.1.21).
• York is currently ranked 35th out of 149 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) with a rank of 1 indicating the lowest 7 day rate.
• For the 7 day period 16.1.21.to 22.1.21, 9 wards in York (Acomb, Westfield, Rawcliffe & Clifton Without, Strensall, Haxby & Wiggington, Clifton, Osbaldwick & Derwent, Heworth and Guildhall) have seen a statistically significant fall in rates compared with the 7 day period 9.1.21 to 15.1.21. For the remaining wards there has been no statistically significant change in rates. No wards have seen a significant increase in rates.
• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 17.1.21 to 23.1.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 232. The national and regional averages were 294.5 and 190.4 respectively.
• As at 25.1.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 PCR tests only) was 9.61%. The national and regional averages are 11.9% and 9.1% respectively.
• As at 25.1.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 Lateral Flow Tests only) was 0.54%. The national and regional averages are 0.7% and 0.4% respectively.
• As at 25.1.21, the latest 14 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 and 2 PCR tests combined) was 11.3%. The national and regional averages were 13.2% and 9.8% respectively. The breakdown for York over the last 14 days is a 9.5% positivity rate for Pillar 1 tests and a 11.8% positivity rate for Pillar 2 PCR tests. Source PHE
• As at 28.1.21 York University reported 29 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.
• As at 25.1.21 York St. John reported 4 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.
Contact Tracing
• Since 28.5.20 a total of 9,953 laboratory confirmed CYC Covid cases have been uploaded into the NHS Test and Trace system and 8,940 of the cases have been completed (89.8%). 23,683 ‘contacts’ have been identified and 17,540 of these have been completed (74.1%). Source: PHE Report.
• Local Tracing of Cases: Between 22.10.20 and 22.1.21, 804 ‘actionable’ positive COVID-19 CYC cases have been referred to the local contact tracing service. 775 of the referrals (96.4%) have been actioned and 29 are still ‘in progress. Of the referrals actioned, 519 (67%) were successful and 256 (33%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible.
Cases in Residential Settings / Schools
• As at 27.1.21 there were 13 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).
• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases) in a residential care setting in York was reported by PHE on 28.1.21 (1 home).
• In the 7 days up to 24.1.21 there were 30 children of primary and secondary school age who tested positive (across 19 different schools). NB Currently the majority of York children are not in the school setting.
COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital
• As at 26.1.21 there were 156 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General and Acute beds. The previous figure on 25.1.21 was 148
• As at 26.1.21 there were 7 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 0 suspected Covid-19 patient in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures on 25.1.21 were 8 and 0 respectively.
• As at 26.1.21 there had been 0 patients admitted with suspected Covid-19 and 4 with confirmed Covid-19 in the previous 24 hours.
• As at 26.1.21 there had been 10 confirmed patients discharged with COVID-19 in last 24 hours
Covid Patients (CYC Residents) discharged from York Hospital
• Between 18.1.21 and 24.1.21, 56 CYC residents were discharged from York hospital after needing NHS care for symptoms linked to covid-19 infection.
R Number
• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 22.1.21 was estimated to be in the range 0.8 to 1.1. The previous estimate was (1.1 to 1.3) on 15.1.21.
Vaccinations
• As at 26.1.21 26,294 CYC residents have received the first dose and 1,017 had received both doses. 10,281 people over 80 have received the first dose. This represents 90.7% of the estimated number of people aged over 80 in York (11,334 people). 708 people aged 65+ who live in care homes have received the first dose.
• In England between 8.12.20 and 27.1.20, 6,918,853 vaccinations had been administered (6,473,752 first dose and 445,101 second dose).
Deaths
The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it enables a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:
• ONS weekly data: In the most recent week (9.1.20 to 15.1.20) 25 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (18 in hospital, 1 at home and 6 in a care home).
• ONS Cumulative data: Since the start of the pandemic, for deaths occurring up to 15th January 2020 and registered up to 23rd January 2021, 263 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (146 in hospital, 97 in care homes, 14 at home and 6 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 124.9 which is lower than the national average of 157.6.
• Local Registrar data (Cumulative): Since the start of the pandemic (using data for deaths occurring up to 20.1.21), a cumulative total of 273 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 82.6, with an age range of 44-104. The age profile of those dying in York is older than the national average. 133 of the 273 were male (48.7%), less than the national average (54.9%). 95 people (34.8%) died in nursing /care homes; (the national average is 24%). In addition 22 people (8.06%) who normally resided in nursing/care homes in the CYC area, died in hospital.