Hospital patient numbers and deaths

Test results

Five additional positive test results were announced today. Brings the cumulative case total up to 12,389

The number of cases in the City has increased by one to 31.

The rate /100k population is 14.72. However it is expected to rise to peak at over 19.5 on Monday.

Neighbourhoods

There are now five neighbourhoods with 3 or more cases.

Vaccinations

• 66.5% of adult York residents have now had their first vaccination
• 42.8% have also had their second jab.

Tests

• 4562 PCR tests were conducted during the week ending 23rd May 2021
• Of these, 0.5% were found to be positive. That is lower than the 0.6% found during the previous period
• In addition, 2537 “lateral flow” tests were conducted on 29th May 20921

Council commentary

The Council has updated is commentary on the pandemic. It can be found on the “open data” web site and is reproduced here for convenience

The data is accurate as at 8.00 a.m. on Friday 28.05.21. Some narrative for the data covering the latest period is provided here below:

People with Covid Symptoms

• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 24.5.21 there had been 79 total covid triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 653 in the 7 day period to 20.9.20.

• As at 27.5.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 33 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 4,017 people). The peak rate was 1,283 on 7.1.21.

Diagnosed cases

• As at 27.5.21 York has had 12,384 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 5,880 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (6,938) and regional (7,292) averages. Cases identified through Lateral Flow Tests will be removed if they have a negative follow up PCR test within 72 hours so the cumulative total of cases can, on occasions, go down.

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the number of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (24.5.21) is Green. In recent weeks the number of cases have been low in York which has an effect on the thresholds used to determine the RAG rating – a small change can mean the difference between a red, amber and green rating.

• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 19.5.21 to 25.5.21 in York is 18 (38 cases). (Using data published on Gov.uk on 27.5.21).

• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 16.5.21 to 22.5.21 in York was 14.2 (30 cases). The national and regional averages at this date were 23.6 and 37.5 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 27.5.21).

• York is currently ranked 69th out of 149 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England with a rank of 1 indicating the lowest 7 day rate.

• For the 7 day period 15.5.21.to 21.5.21 the number of cases in each ward varied from 0 to 4 and rates varied from 0 to 71.9 per 100,000. 6 wards had zero cases.

• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 16.5.21 to 22.5.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 2.0 (1 case). The national and regional averages were 6.7 and 8.5 respectively.

• As at 25.5.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 PCR tests only) was 1.02%. The national and regional averages are 1.3% and 2.0% respectively.

• As at 25.5.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 Lateral Flow Tests only) was 0.09%. The national and regional averages are 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

• As at 25.5.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 tests only) was 0.2%. The national average is 0.3%.

• As at 21.5.21 York University reported 6 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.

• As at 17.5.21 York St. John reported 0 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.

Contact Tracing

• Local Contact Tracing. Between 10.3.21 and 21.5.21, 224 referrals (cases) had been actioned by the local contact tracing service. Of the referrals actioned, 207 (92.4%) were successful and 17 (7.6%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible. (NB on the 10.3.21 the local CYC team became responsible for contacting all cases rather than just those that the national team could not contact).

Cases in Residential Care Settings

• As at 21.5.21 there were 0 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).

• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases) in a residential care setting in York were reported by PHE on 25.2.21 (1 home).

Cases amongst School Aged Children

• In the 7 days up to 24.5.21 there were 8 children of primary or secondary school age who tested positive (across 5 different schools).

COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital

• As at 25.5.21 there were 0 confirmed Covid-19 patients in a General or Acute bed. The peak number was 157 on 19.1.21.

• As at 25.5.21 there were 0 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 0 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The peak number for people in ITU was 19 on 10.5.20.

R Number

• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 21.5.21 was estimated to be in the range 0.8 to 1.0. The previous estimate was (0.8 to 1.0) on 14.5.21.

Variant of Concern

• Data from Public Health England shows that in York, up to 26.5.21, there have been less than five cases of the Variant of Concern (VOC-21APR-02) which was first identified in India.

Total Vaccinations

• As at 26.5.21 a total of 115,555 CYC residents have had the first dose of the vaccine. This represents 54.9% of the estimated total population of York and 66.4% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York.

• As at 26.5.21 a total of 73,167 CYC residents have had both doses of the vaccine. This represents 34.7% of the estimated total population of York and 42.1% of the estimated adult (18+) population of York.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data provides a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS Weekly data: In the most recent period (Week 19: 8.5.21 to 14.5.21) 0 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents. In weeks 16, 17 and 18 there had been 0, 1 and 0 deaths respectively.

• ONS Cumulative data: Since the start of the pandemic, for deaths occurring up to 8th May 2021 and registered up to 22nd May 2021, 396 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (228 in hospital, 135 in care homes, 25 at home/elsewhere and 8 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 188.02 which is lower than the national average of 232.10

• Age / Gender breakdown (using registrar data): The average age of the CYC residents who died was 82.1, with an age range of 44-104. The age profile of the CYC residents who have died is older than the national average (79.5% were aged 75+ compared with 73% nationally). 47.9% of the CYC residents who died were male. The national average is 54.4%.