Deaths
SIX additional deaths’ have been announced by the York Hospital Trust. Four occurred yesterday and two on Wednesday.
Although this is the largest single day announcement for over a week, the underlying trend confirms a continuing reduction in the COVID-19 death rate at local hospitals.
Test results
THIRTY ONE additional positive test results have been announced today. That brings the cumulative total number of cases up to 11,519
The rate /100k population figure has reduced to 119.65. That is the lowest rate seen in the City since 18th December 2020.
Infection levels are still reducing more quickly than was seen towards the end of Lockdown 2 (the period up to 2nd December 2020)
For the first time this year, York nw has a lower infection rate than North Yorkshire. The City has been below the regional and national averages for over a month.
Neighbourhoods
The improving picture at City level also reflects at neighbourhood level where only New Earswick now has above average infection rates.
South Bank/Dringhouses continues to have a very low infection rate
Tests
5196 PCR tests were conducted in York during the week ending 7th Feb 2021.
The positivity rate was 5.4% which represents an improvement on yesterdays figure.
1237 lateral flow tests were carried out on 11th February
Vaccinations
Where next?
The table below details the substantial changes that there have been in infection rates in York over the last year.
It will be important to understand what went wrong in the four weeks which led up to the winter peak in case numbers on 8th January 2021. The authorities must act cautiously and make sure that they are proceeding with the support and understanding of the City generally.
The preparations, for the reopening of schools to all pupils in March, are likely to be the first to be scrutinised.
The latest figures (see Council commentary below) confirm that there are 19 children who have had positive test results recently, There is no room for complacency.
We hope that the success of the vaccination programme (which is now proceeding with the 60+ age group now being inoculated) will allow teachers and other school staff to get an early jab. Regular testing of all who access school sites will also be essential, if public confidence is to be restored.
Council commentary
The York Council’s commentary on the pandemic has been updated on the “open data” website and is reproduced here for convenience
People with Covid Symptoms
• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 8.2.21 there had been 100 total covid triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 653 in the 7 day period to 20.9.20.
• As at 11.2.21, the Covid Symptom App estimates 260.1 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 4,706 people). The peak rate was 1,282.6 on 7.1.21.
Diagnosed cases
• As at 11.2.21 York has had 11,488 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 5,454.4 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (6,224.7) and regional (6,114.3) averages.
• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (8.2.21) is Green.
• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 3.2.21 to 9.2.21 in York is 103 (using data published on Gov.uk on 11.2.21).
• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 31.1.21 to 6.2.21 was 134.8. The national and regional averages at this date were 194.6 and 177.8 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 11.2.21).
• York is currently ranked 25th out of 149 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in England with a rank of 1 indicating the lowest 7 day rate.
• For the 7 day period 30.1.21.to 5.2.21, 2 wards in York (Haxby & Wiggington and Fishergate) have seen a statistically significant fall in rates compared with the 7 day period 23.1.21 to 29.1.21. For the remaining wards there has been no statistically significant change in rates. No wards have seen a significant increase in rates in this period.
• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 31.1.21 to 6.2.21 for people aged 60+ in York was 117. The national and regional averages were 151 and 125.7 respectively.
• As at 8.2.21, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 PCR tests only) was 5.4%. The national and regional averages are 7.1% and 7.6% respectively.
• As at 8.2.21 the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 Lateral Flow Tests only) was 0.3%. The national and regional averages are 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.
• As at 9.2.21, the latest 14 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 1 and 2 PCR tests combined) was 6.2%. The national and regional averages were 8.2% and 7.9% respectively. The breakdown for York over the last 14 days is a 5.3% positivity rate for Pillar 1 tests and a 6.6% positivity rate for Pillar 2 PCR tests. Source PHE
• As at 10.2.21 York University reported 21 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 331 on the 19.10.20.
• As at 8.2.21 York St. John reported 5 individuals within the University community who were currently self-isolating because they have had a positive COVID-19 test. The peak number was 82 on the 8.10.20.
Contact Tracing
• Since 28.5.20 a total of 10,577 laboratory confirmed CYC Covid cases have been uploaded into the NHS Test and Trace system and 9,515 of the cases have been completed (90%). 24,793 ‘contacts’ have been identified and 18,589 of these have been completed (75%). Source: PHE Report.
• Local Tracing of Cases: Between 22.10.20 and 5.2.21, 890 ‘actionable’ positive COVID-19 CYC cases have been referred to the local contact tracing service. 888 of the referrals (99.8%) have been actioned and 2 are still ‘in progress. Of the referrals actioned, 567 (63.9%) were successful and 321 (36.1%) were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible.
Cases in Residential Care Settings
• As at 11.2.21 there were 5 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).
• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases) in a residential care setting in York was reported by PHE on 8.2.21 (1 home).
Cases amongst School Aged Children
• In the 7 days up to 7.2.21 there were 19 children of primary and secondary school age who tested positive. NB Currently the majority of York children are not in the school setting.
COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital
• As at 10.2.21 there were 85 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General and Acute beds. The previous figure on 9.2.21 was 94.
• As at 10.2.21 there were 13 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 0 suspected Covid-19 patient in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures on 9.2.21 were 13 and 0 respectively.
• As at 10.2.21 there had been 0 patients admitted with suspected Covid-19 and 0 with confirmed Covid-19 in the previous 24 hours.
• As at 10.2.21 there had been 12 confirmed patients discharged with COVID-19 in last 24 hours.
Covid Patients (CYC Residents) discharged from York Hospital
• Between 1.2.21 and 7.2.21, 29 CYC residents were discharged from York hospital after needing NHS care for symptoms linked to covid-19 infection.
R Number
• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 5.2.21 was estimated to be in the range 0.8 to 1.0. The previous estimate was (0.8 to 1.1) on 29.1.21.
Vaccinations
• As at 10.2.21, 45,596 CYC residents have received the first dose and 1,049 had received both doses.
Deaths
The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it enables a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:
• ONS weekly data: In the most recent week (23.1.20 to 29.1.20) 23 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (18 in hospital, 2 at home or in a hospice and 3 in a care home).
• ONS Cumulative data: Since the start of the pandemic, for deaths occurring up to 29th January 2021 and registered up to 6th February 2021, 317 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (184 in hospital, 108 in care homes, 18 at home and 7 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 150.5 which is lower than the national average of 186.1.
• Local Registrar data (Cumulative): Since the start of the pandemic (using data for deaths occurring up to 3.2.21), a cumulative total of 317 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 82.5, with an age range of 44-104. The age profile of those dying in York is older than the national average (80.8% of those who died in York were aged 75+ compared with 74.2% nationally). 154 of the 317 were male (48.6%), less than the national average (54.4%).