Acomb and Bishopthorpe reviewed
9269 people live in the Acomb Ward. 73% own their own home. 15% are social renters with 393 occupying Council houses. 1.9% claim out of work benefits. Life expectancy is about average for the City. Crime levels are below the City average. 84.2% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 86.8%). 16.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 25.7). Source
Elections
The 2015 elections were held on the same day as a General Election. Hence the turnout was almost double the number usually voting at a Local Election. Voting patterns did not mirror the General Election result particularly in the York Central Constituency where Labour had a big parliamentary vote but, following a poor performance in control of the Council, found ballot box support collapsing. A smaller turnout is expected on 2nd May.
Acomb was a safe Labour seat for many years. In 2015 their support plummeted, and one of the two seats went to a popular local Tory (Keith Myers) Long term Councillor Tracy Simpson Laing lost her seat and she was replaced by Strensall based Stuart Barnes. The other parties performed poorly and are likely to be squeezed in what is the only genuine Labour/Tory marginal in the City.
Former Labour Councillor Brian Watson is standing as an Independent. He was de-selected by Labour in 2015 after representing the Guildhall Ward for many years. Now he is trying his luck in the ward in which he lives. A moderate socialist, he may take votes from the hard-left backed Labour ticket. Whether he can regain a seat will, as with all Independents, depend on how many leaflets he can deliver.
The election has generated extra interest because returning Tory Councillor Keith Myers is next in line to by York’s Lord Mayor. He will take office at the end of May if he can retain his seat. Not since Peter Gales, a Labour Councillor also for the Acomb Ward, failed in a bid for re-election in 1975 has the destination of the Lord Mayoralty been so unpredictable.
Both the existing Councillors have reasonable local reputations. If national concerns are foremost in electors’ minds then the Tories could lose their seat. However, a majority may opt to back experience.
Prediction
1 Labour seat
1 Conservative seat
Bishopthorpe
Bishopthorpe is one of the smaller wards in York with 4147 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 88% of residents own their home. 1.9% are out of work. Crime levels are amongst the lowest in the City. 94.1% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 86.8%). 29.4% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 25.7). Source
Elections
The 2015 elections were held on the same day as a General Election. Hence the turnout was almost double the number usually voting at a Council election. Voting patterns did not mirror the General Election result but, following a poor performance in control of the Council, Labour found ballot box support collapsing. A smaller turnout is expected on 2nd May.
Bishopthorpe has been a safe Conservative seat for over a decade. The only interruption to their tenure came in 2003 when it was won by the LibDems. Since then the LibDem support has dropped away and was only 6% at the last election. The ward is the first to be reviewed where a retiring Tory Councillor is seeking re-election as an Independent. John Galvin was de-selected by the Tories last year ostensibly on the grounds that he was too old. He will not have been pleased to note that another octogenarian was subsequently selected by the Tories to contest a nearby ward. The real reason for the change of candidate had more to do with John Galvin’s uncompromising style on the Council.
The Tories have selected a relative unknown to contest the election.
Carole Greene, having previously contested the seat as both a LibDem and later as an Independent, is now trying as a Green party candidate.
John Galvin was an archetypical Tory having worked for the party for many years. His abrasive style doesn’t enamour him to everyone and there will be those in the village who may be looking for a change of approach. However, at a time when the Conservative party is in turmoil both locally and nationally, it may well be a good time to be seeking election as an Independent. It certainly looks like experience will be very limited on the new Council, so the return of some seasoned campaigners may be in the City’s best interests
Prediction
1 Independent seat