Deaths and test results

One additional death reported by the York Hospital Trust today

SEVENTY EIGHT additional positive test results announced today.

Age profile of cases

The latest infection figures show that 16.3% of positive test results in York related to people aged over 60. This is generally good news as fatalities for the disease are low for the younger age groups.

There were 13 positive test results recorded in the over 60 age group on the latest day (19th Dec) for which figures have been posted. As with the younger age group, infection rates have increased over the last few days.

It is too soon for the vaccination initiative to have had any effect on the numbers, but the expectation is that the over 60’s will become gradually more immune to the virus as the programme gathers pace.

The latest proportions (24/12/20) of positive test results that relate to over 60’s are

• York – 16.3% (rolling 7 day average)
• North Yorkshire – 21.3% (19/12/20)
• Yorkshire – 20.8% (19/12/20)
• England – 15.2% (19/12/20)

Council commentary

The York Council has updated its commentary on the pandemic. It is reproduced below.

People with Covid Symptoms

• NHS Pathways/111 triages – as at 21.12.20 there had been 133 total covid triages in the CYC area in the last 7 days. The peak number of triages was 653 in the 7 day period to 20.9.20.

• As at 23.12.20, the Covid Symptom App estimates 357.1 per 100,000 in York with symptomatic covid (responses from a sample of 4,631 people). The peak rate was 1,116.3 on 31.10.20.

Diagnosed cases (Pillar 1&2 combined)

• As at 23.12.20 York has had 6,345 cases since the start of the pandemic, a rate of 3,012.6 per 100,000 of population. The cumulative rate in York is below the national (3,267.5) and regional (4,379.1) averages.

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (20.12.20) is Red.

• The provisional rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 15.12.20 to 21.12.20 in York is 163.8 (using data published on Gov.uk on 23.12.20).

• The latest official “validated” rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 12.12.20 to 18.12.20 was 115.4. The national and regional averages at this date were 325.4 and 163.1 respectively (using data published on Gov.uk on 23.12.20).

• The rate of new Covid cases per 100,000 of population for the period 11.12.20 to 17.12.20 for people aged 60+ in York was 72.6. The national and regional averages were 186.4 and 137 respectively.

• As at 21.12.20, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 only) was 3.95%. The national and regional averages are 9.4% and 5.6% respectively. The breakdown for York over the last 7 days by type of test is 137 positives from 2,662 lab based (PCR) tests (5.15%) and 11 positives from 1,083 rapid (lateral flow) tests (1.02%).

Contact Tracing

• Since 28.5.20 a total of 5,208 laboratory confirmed CYC Covid cases have been uploaded into the NHS Test and Trace system and 4,558 of the cases have been completed (87.5%). 14,240 ‘contacts’ have been identified and 8,932 of these have been completed (62.7%). Source: PHE Report.

• Local Tracing of Cases: Between 22.10.20 and 18.12.20, 373 ‘actionable’ positive COVID-19 CYC cases have been referred to the local contact tracing service. 372 of the referrals (99.7%) have been actioned and 1 is still ‘in progress. Of the referrals actioned, 267 were successful and 104 were unable to be reached via phone or home visit, but guidance leaflets were posted where possible.

Cases in Residential Settings / Schools

• As at 23.12.20 there were 7 care homes in the CYC area with confirmed Covid-19 infection (at least 1 case of either a staff member or resident).

• The latest ‘outbreak’ (2+ cases) in a residential care setting in York was reported by PHE on 23.12.20 (1 home).

• In the 7 days up to 20.12.20 there were 23 children of primary and secondary school age who tested positive (across 16 different schools).

COVID Bed Occupancy in York Hospital

• As at 22.12.20 there were 39 confirmed Covid-19 patients in General and Acute beds. The previous figure on 21.12.20 was 44.

• As at 22.12.20 there were 5 confirmed Covid-19 patients and 1 suspected Covid-19 patients in the Intensive Treatment Unit. The previous figures on 21.12.20 were 5 and 0 respectively.

• As at 22.12.20 there had been 0 patients admitted with suspected Covid-19 and 0 with confirmed Covid-19 in the previous 24 hours.

Recovery from Covid-19

• Between 13.4.20 and 20.12.20, 276 CYC residents had recovered and been successfully discharged from York hospital after needing NHS care for symptoms linked to covid-19 infection. 12 people were discharged in the most recent week.

R Number

• The ‘R’ value (the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on average) for the North East and Yorkshire area on 18.12.20 was estimated to be in the range 0.9 to 1.1. The previous estimate was (0.7 to 0.9) on 11.12.20.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it provides a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS weekly data: For deaths occurring up to 11th December 2020 and registered up to 19th December 2020, 208 Covid-19 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (99 in hospital, 91 in care homes, 12 at home and 6 in a hospice). The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 98.76 which is lower than the national average of 121.04. There have been 36 Covid-19 deaths of CYC residents reported by ONS in the last 10 weeks (Weeks 41 to 50).

• ‘Excess’ deaths – all causes (ONS). Between week 2 and week 50 there were a total of 143 ‘excess deaths’ in York compared with the average weekly numbers for 2014-2018. The breakdown over the year so far is: 18 fewer deaths in weeks 2-14, 210 more deaths in weeks 15-21 (when covid deaths were at their peak) and 49 fewer deaths in weeks 22-50.

• Local Registrar data: In the weekly data received on 21.12.20 (for deaths occurring up to 16.12.20), a cumulative total of 199 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 82.3, with an age range of 53-104. The age profile of those dying in York is older than the national average. 98 of the 199 were male (49.2%), less than the national average (55.4%). 83 people (41.7%) died in nursing /care homes; (the national average is 25.94%). In addition 16 people (8.04%) who normally resided in nursing/care homes in the CYC area, died in hospital.