Fig 1 Economic growth forecasts click to view

Those York Councillors who attended a briefing session last week on the Local Plan will have found out little new.

The disconnect between Labour’s, highly optimistic, economic growth assumptions and population projections remain, although figures provided by specialist consultants are beginning to paint a more realistic picture.

A study by Oxford economists suggest that as many as 13,000 new jobs could be created in the City over the next 15 years. However, about half of these will simply replace jobs which are being lost.

Fig 2 Population growth click to view

The same team says that there could be an additional 24,300 people wanting to live in York by 2030. This would generate a demand for about 450 additional homes per year (see figs 1 and 2 right).

The Council has finally admitted that 75% of the projected population growth can be attributed to immigration, rather than “providing affordable homes for York families” –  the claim used by Labour to justify their “Big City” growth plans in the past.

Fig 3 Summary click to enlarge

In summary (fig 3) the consultants conclude that the York economy should grow by around 2.8% on average each year.

The Local Plan agreed in February 2011 had agreed that around 550 additional homes were needed in the City each year.

Population projections vary enormously depending on when the calculation has been undertaken (see below)

Changing population projections

A second set of Consultants (ARUP) conceded that a straight projection of the 2011 estimates would produce an annual requirement for 638 homes pa.

They suggest that this should be increased to 838 to reflect an “assumed higher economic growth rate post 2021”.

It is this argument, about the level of economic growth that the City could sustain, that is likely to be the key area of debate as the Council moves forward to decide how many – and where – additional homes should be built.

If the lower figures are used then – taking into account an allowance for the large number of windfall opportunities which occur in York – it should be possible to produce a Plan which respects the City’s green field setting.

The other question which needs to be addressed honestly  is whether the homes will actually be built?

Housing demand is increasing again following 5 years when house prices in the City have been stable. Over 5000 outstanding planning permissions currently exist but – partly as a result of the recession – house building levels have been sluggish (fig 4)

Fig 4 Housing completions in York click to enlarge

Some changes are likely with central government acting to remove the requirement for affordable housing quotas on developments of under 10 homes.

Council Housing

A review of the Councils policy on purchasing properties to rent on the open market is also overdue now with the recently announced 6 new (2 bedroomed) Council homes – scheduled to be built on a site on Pottery Lane* – apparently likely to cost over £170,000 each when site values are included.

There are dozens of modern 2 bedroomed property available on the open market for lower prices.

*Residents can view the plans for the Pottery Lane development on Thursday 11 December at St Wulstan’s Church, Fossway from 4pm – 6:30pm.

NB. The latest Council house waiting list figure for York show that it has reduced to 1348.

The York Council has issued a media release saying that all Councillors are being invited to a (private) briefing session on options for progressing the Local Plan.

Apparently they will be able to question the consultants who produced the background data that was claimed to underpin Labour’s “Big City” strategy.

It was a tactic which resulted in a  plan which attracted massive public opposition and which was then ditched  at the October Council meeting.

It is unusual for the Council to issue a media release about an internal briefing session.  While any attempt to involve all groups represented on the Council in making important decisions would be a step forward, consultants evidence is often predicated on justifying a given political outcome.

Some fresh thinking, and options, will be expected by opposition councillors

In particular Councillors will be expecting to see robust challenges to both the economic growth assumptions, and resultant housing building plans, which caused so much unrest in the City.

The Council media release reads,
(more…)

In a letter to local Labour Councillor James Alexander the Liberal Democrat leader criticises “incremental” housing development – adding homes to existing communities – and advocates larger schemes on “Garden City” principles that are accompanied by new schools and other key infrastructure.

Labour’s Local Plan proposals 2013 click to enlarge

He writes: “I recognise that the incremental add-on style of development, or ‘urban sprawl’, tends to cause high levels of local resentment.

“Building around the edges of existing developments often destroys local green spaces, does nothing to improve local infrastructure and tends to create a drain on resources such as schools and hospitals.”

The Lib Dem leader said he was looking at a “range of options” to encourage communities to accept new garden cities.

The Local Plan published by Labour 18 months go relied heavily on incremental development. The fringe building proposals including using sensitive sites like Acomb Moor

The Labour Plan was sent back to the drawing board in October

 The only development which might have been considered to be a new “garden village” was a 6000 home community be called “Whinthorpe” which was to have been located south of the A64 southern by pass near the University.

It is, however, in the Green Belt and would require a huge investment in transport infrastructure to bring to fruition.

The expectation is that any new garden village would be located further away from existing urban areas with the ability to provide enhanced transport links a key criteria.

Liberal Democrats have previously identified how an additional 12,000 homes can be provided on brownfield land in the City over the next 25 years.

This would be adequate to meet the requirements of any realistic economic growth projection. 

The LibDem plan would – unlike Labours – include a “windfall” allowance intended to recognise that many homes will be built on sites which are currently used for other purposes.

Hudson House in Toft Green

NB. Most new homes built in the City during the last 5 years have been built on brownfield land.

Over the last 18 months a record number of planning applications for new houses (over 1600) have been approved by the York Council. 90% of these have been for brownfield “windfall” sites not identified for redevelopment in Labour’s Local Plan.

Just today plans to convert part of Hudson House into 115 flats have been announced. Last week developers said that they would provide 26 apartments in a disused chapel located near the hospital