Coronavirus York updates; 25th November 2020

Deaths and test results

FOUR (4) additional deaths announced by York Hospital Trust today. 3 occurred on Sunday and one on Monday. This brings the cumulative second wave fatality total to 66 at the York and Scarborough hospitals

TWENTY NINE (29) new positive test results announced today bringing the cumulative total to 5547

The figures will be looked at with greater interest today as the government is set to announce tomorrow (Thursday) which tier the City will be placed with effect from next Tuesday.

There are some positive indicators

There has been a sustained reduction in case numbers from 57.86 per day when Lockdown was introduced on 5th November to 38.1 today

The City has a lower case rate per 100k head of population than the county, regional and national averages.

Only two neighbourhoods are now above the national average (Heslington and Clifton Without).

On the other hand the case rate at 132.47 is still higher than it was at the peak of the first wave (96.86 on 5th May). 169 residents lost their lives to the virus during the spring and early summer.

We expect the City to be put into Tier1 along with Ryedale and Hambleton. If so we hope it doesn’t encourage the kind of activities which were seen on our streets in September.

Guildhall project costs set to soar to £21.7 million

A report being considered by the York Council tomorrow reveals that repairs and the reconfiguration of the Guildhall will cost an extra £1.5 million on top of the previously agreed £20 million budget.

A different report recommends that the York Science Park Ltd company be appointed to run the proposed business start up centre.

The increased costs bring into further focus the poor management issues which have dogged the project since 2012.

The Council has made no attempt to update its business plan assumptions.

Two years ago it gave the go ahead to Option 1 detailed below.

It is now clear that the capital financing costs (and hence borrowing repayments) will be higher and that there will be no income from the proposed restaurant for the foreseeable future.

The income to the Council, from renting office space to Science City, is expected to be £160,000 a year.

Option 2 now looks like a much better deal for taxpayers.

Could things get worse?

Maybe.

Building works continue during the winter months with more delays possible.

The council would remain responsible for external maintenance of the structure and fabric of the complex, with the support of an annual sinking fund payment of £50k pa from YSPL as tenant.

Maintenance costs on this very old building have, in the past, been much higher.

Council taxpayers told £1 in every £5 will go on repaying debt

Busting Myths on Debts and Bankruptcy | CHAI

Every November the York Councils Executive Councillors are asked to review its investment and borrowing strategy. A series of, what are termed, “prudential indicators” are published. They offer a guide for taxpayers on how their money is being managed.

Usually the item attracts little interest or comment.

This year may be different with todays national spending review likely to offer a guide on how the billions, currently being borrowed by the government to counter the pandemic, will be repaid.

The York figures do not include provision for the local impact of COVID.

The revenue budget does look set to take a £10 million hit next year with widespread cuts in services inevitable unless the government authorises an above average tax rise. Another option might be to allow Councils to borrow money to prop up day to day spending for a couple of years. This (unlikely) option would have an impact the Councils investment (capital) budget

But without that – and isolating the housing revenue account (which is funded from rents) – what is the current liability of York taxpayers?

The figures reveal that, from a starting position in 2016 when the authority needed to service £238,7 million of borrowing, by 2023 that liability will have increased to £338.7 million.

That is a 40% increase.

Should we worry?

The short answer is yes. The Council is required to make what is known as a Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP) in its revenue budget to cover principal repayments and interest charges on its borrowing. The proportion has varied over the years but usually around 12% of current account expenditure has gone on servicing debt.

That is set to escalate to 21% by 2024.

That could mean less money being available for core services such as road repairs, caring for the elderly and disabled and keeping the City clean. Many non statutory services such as leisure could be hit hardest.

You can read what the Council says by clicking here