Coronavirus York updates; 12th September 2020

Deaths and test results

An additional TEN positive test results have been announced today. That brings the cumulative total number of cases in the City up to 1027.

There have been no additional deaths

There is currently a spike in cases in the Westfield, Strensall and Osbaldwick neighbourhoods

Council commentary

The Council has updated its commentary on the pandemic which can be found on the open data web site. It is reproduced below.

Diagnosed cases (Pillar 1&2 combined)

• As at 10.9.20 York has had 1,008 cases, a rate of 478.6 per 100,000 of population. The rate in York is lower than national (549.2) and regional (704.8) averages. The most recent cases in York had a test specimen date of 7.9.20 (6 cases).

• The PHE ‘Exceedance’ rating compares the no. of new cases over a 14 day period with the previous 6 weeks and provides a RAG rating to indicate if the previously observed trend in the no. of new cases is worsening. The latest rating for York (7.9.20) is Red. The rating was triggered by a higher than ‘expected’ number of cases per 100 tests four times in the last 14 days (5 cases with a specimen date of 25.8.20, 6 cases on 1.9.20, 7 cases on 2.9.20 and 7 cases on 3.9.20). We know that in recent weeks the number of cases have been low in York which has an effect on the thresholds used to determine the RAG rating – a small change can mean the difference between a red, amber and green rating. The exceedance rating should not be considered in isolation but in context alongside other factors such as the recent total number of cases, COVID related deaths, outbreaks as well as changes in the local testing regime and local hotspot analysis.

• The latest weekly National Covid-19 Surveillance Report released on 4.9.20 and covering the week up to 30.8.20, showed that the 7 day rate of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population tested under Pillar 1 and 2 was 7.15 for York. York was ranked 42nd out of 149 local authorities (with 1 being the lowest rate).

• The latest validated 7 day rate of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population for York is 14.72. This is for the 7 day period up to 4.9.20. This excludes cases with a sample date in the last few days due to partial data and lags in reporting. The rate in York is increasing but remains lower than national (21.9) and regional (31.2) averages.

• As at 7.9.20, the latest 7 day positivity rate in York (Pillar 2 only) was 1.65% (35 positives out of 2,117 tests). The positivity rate in York is increasing but remains lower than national (2.4%) and regional (3.1%) averages.

• As at 8.9.20 the latest 14 day positivity rate in York was 1.3% overall (2.0% for Pillar 2 and 0.2% for Pillar 1). The rate in York is lower than national (2.4%) and regional (3.4%) rates.

Deaths

The two sources about deaths from Covid-19 at LA level are ONS data and local registrar data. They are derived from the same source (civil registration data). ONS data is more comprehensive as it includes deaths of York residents which have occurred and been registered outside York. Local registrar data is useful as it provides a breakdown by age and gender. The most recently available data is summarised below:

• ONS weekly data: For deaths occurring up to 28st August 2020 and registered up to 5th September 2020, 171 deaths were recorded as having occurred for CYC residents (83 in hospital, 76 in care homes, 9 at home and 3 in a hospice. The number of deaths per 100,000 of population in York is 81.19 which is lower than the national average of 88.25. The most recent death reported for a York resident was in week 31 (25 to 31 July).

• ‘Excess’ deaths (ONS). In week 35 (22 August to 28 August), 24 deaths occurred in York, which is 6 fewer than the average weekly number for 2014-18. Over the last 14 weeks the total number of deaths in York has been 46 fewer than the average for the equivalent weeks in 2014-18.

• Local Registrar data: In the weekly data received on 7.9.20 (for deaths occurring up to 2.9.20), a cumulative total of 162 deaths of CYC residents where COVID-19 was mentioned (confirmed or suspected) on the death certificate, have been registered. The average age of the people who died was 82.47, with an age range of 53-104. The age profile of those dying in York is slightly older than the national average. 86 of the 162 were male (53.1%), slightly less than the national average (55%). 81 of the deaths occurred in hospital and 81 were community deaths (e.g. at home or in a care home or hospice). 70 people (43.2%) died in nursing /care homes (the national average is 29.6%). In addition 13 people (8%) who normally resided in nursing/care homes in the CYC area, died in hospital.

Data on deaths occurring in hospital are shown below. Deaths are initially reported for York NHS Foundation Trust which includes Scarborough Hospital and the further breakdown by site can be delayed. From local registrar data, 58.5% of COVID-19 deaths occurring at York Hospital have been CYC residents. (NB NHS Trusts record deaths following a positive covid-19 test whereas ONS record deaths where covid-19 in mentioned on the death certificate so the totals are not the same).

• Deaths at York Hospital: As at 9.9.20, 134 deaths of people who had tested positive for COVID-19 and were being cared for at York Hospital have been reported. 214 deaths have been reported by the wider York NHS Trust.

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