So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Huntington and Micklegate Wards reviewed

Micklegate

The Micklegate ward is home to 12,927 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 51% of residents own their home. 34% rent privately and 13% are social tenants. There are 544 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average.  90.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%).  36.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%).  Source

Elections

Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year.. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillor were elected.  Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as an explanation for his drop in popularity.

Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office.  Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where is now lives.

There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.

The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Councils Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker who is already on M. P.  Rachel Maskell’s payroll.

The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat.

Huntington and New Earswick

The Huntington ward is home to 12,689 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 70% of residents own their home. 7% rent privately and 20% are social tenants. There are 104 Council homes in the area. 2.7% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average.  92.9% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%).  25.0% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%).  Source

Elections

This ward has consistently returned Liberal Democrat Councillors since local government reorganisation in 1995. One of the current representatives, Keith Orrell, is the City’s Lord Mayor. Another is veteran Councillor Carol Runciman who has Executive responsibility for Social Care.

The Tories are fielding unknowns. They either don’t live in the area or declined to reveal their address on the nomination form. This was another ward in which the Tories failed to nominate any candidates in 2011.

This ward has seen a major redevelopment at the Community Stadium site and some concerns remain about parking and traffic in the Monks Cross area.

All in all though, it is difficult to see anything other than another LibDem win in Huntington

Prediction

3 LibDem seats

So who will win the York Council elections on 2nd May?

Hull Road and Micklegate Ward reviews

Hull Road

The Hull Road ward is home to 15,055 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 48% of residents own their home.  32% rent privately and 18% are social tenants. There are 615 Council homes in the area. 0.7% are out of work. Crime levels are below average.  63.6% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. This is worse than any other ward.  (York average 88.6%).  9.09% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%).  Source

Elections

This ward has been won consistently by Labour. It now encompasses the University of York campus.

The contest  is given added interest this time round as one of the Labour victors in 2015 has left the party and is standing as an Independent candidate. Hillary Shephard – formerly a Council employee and shop steward – was on the moderate wing of the Labour Party. Hull Road Labour is now hard left dominated  with  some students activists believed to be heavily influential. As with all Independents the hurdle that she faces is to mobilise sufficient help to get leaflets delivered and electors canvassed.

One of the Labour candidates, Michael Pavlovic ,won a by-election in 2017. It was held on the same day as the General Election which was used by many electors to protest to Mrs May about her wasting their time.

Unusually two of the Labour candidates live at the same address in the ward. They say they moved to study in the City as recently as 2013.

Prediction

3 Labour seats

Micklegate

The Micklegate ward is home to 12,927 residents. Average incomes are higher than the City average. 51% of residents own their home. 34% rent privately and 13% are social tenants. There are 544 Council homes in the area. 1.4% are out of work. Crime levels are well above average.  90.3% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live. (York average 88.6%).  36.7% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2%).  Source

Elections

Likely to be one of the most interesting contests this year. In 2015 this was the only ward to split 3 ways. 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 Green Party Councillors were elected.  Retiring Labour Councillor Dave Merrett plunged to 7th place in the poll with many people pointing to his decision to restrict access to Lendal bridge as the explanation for his drop in popularity.

Independent Councillor Jonny Hayes and the other surprise victor, Lars Kramm (Green), are both quitting after one term of office.  Both did bring a breath of fresh air to an otherwise predictable and tribal Council chamber. Lars Kramm is trying his luck in Copmanthorpe where he now lives.

There will no Independent candidate in the Micklegate Ward this time.

The Greens are fielding Rosie Baker who unsuccessfully contested a by election held in Micklegate in 2017. The victor then, Jonny Crawshaw, returns. He is understood to have ambitions to lead the Council’s Labour Group. He is joined by Sandi Redpath who is another party worker already on M.P.  Rachel Maskell’s payroll.

The fragmented result last time suggests that Micklegate has a sophisticated (or confused) electorate. The ward may once again produce an unexpected result.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 Green seat.