So who will win the York Council elections

Heworth Without and Holgate reviewed

Heworth Without

The Heworth Without ward is home to 3,933 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 89% of residents own their home.  7% rent privately and 3% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 1.3% are out of work. Crime levels are significantly below average.  94.12% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 18.75% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2).  Source

Elections

This area had been held by the LibDems for most of the last 20 years and longer. The only interruption came in 2007 when, following a change of LibDem candidate, the late Bill Bennett won the seat for the Conservatives.

His triumph didn’t last long as he sadly passed away a few months later. The resultant by election saw Nigel Ayre elected with a substantial majority.

The ward has been solidly LibDem ever since.

Neither the Tories nor the Greens have found a local candidate while Labour have not revealed where their candidate lives.

Nigel Ayre is popular in the ward and has worked hard to free it from the threat of development. He may be less well regarded in some other parts of the City where he has fronted the Councils, sometimes divisive, leisure polices. He was also one of those, together with Keith Aspden, who was unjustly accused of breaking standards rules.

The LibDems will expect to retain this seat.

Prediction

1 LibDem seat

Holgate

The Holgate ward is home to 12,786 residents. Average incomes are lower than the City average. 23% of residents own their home.  23% rent privately and 12% are social tenants. There are 476 Council homes in the area. 1.5% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly above average.  90.32% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 30.0% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2).  Source

Elections

This ward was won by the LibDems in 2003. It has been Labour since 2007

.. & that is the problem for the LibDems both here and in nearby wards with a high proportion of social housing. For many years in York the LibDems were the natural alternative to Labour in the poorer parts of the City. The 2003 success was based on attracting large numbers of votes from Council tenants and those living in smaller terraced properties in the Leeman Road area.  The by election campaign, which should have been easy fodder for the LibDem machine, seemed to falter in those areas. Some blame an influx of “Middle England” strategists into the local party for the failure.

The trend figure disguises a freak poor performance  for the LibDems in 2015 probably as a result of the General Election taking place on the same day.  A by election  in February 2018, which saw the LibDems fielding a credible local candidate, saw the parties share of the vote return to 32.3% – but still well behind Labour.

If the party has now got its act together, it should win seats here. It has arguably got the best candidates (local, experienced, committed to the area).

If the lessons have been learnt, then, starting from a strong second place, the LibDems should overhaul Labour. Labour have sacked two of their existing Councillors. They join Sonya Crisp who quit earlier and caused the by election.

In their places are two new youthful candidates only one of whom lives in the ward (The other is one of those who declines to reveal her address).

She is less frank than one of the Tory candidates who admits to living in Beverley. That is an 80 mile round trip and probably some kind of record! Her fellow Tory candidates decline to say where they live.

Prediction

2 Labour seats, 1 LibDem seat

So who will win the York Council elections?

Haxby and Heworth wards reviewed

Haxby and Wigginton

The Haxby & Wigginton ward is home to 11,923 residents. Average incomes are a little lower than the City average. 88% of residents own their home.  6% rent privately and 5% are social tenants. There are no Council homes in the area. 2.0% are out of work. Crime levels are  below average.  93.6% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 45.1% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2).  Source

Elections

This area had been a LibDem stronghold for decades. However a gradual decline in support resulted in 2 of the 3 seats being won by the Tories in 2015. The remaining LibDem (Ian Cuthbertson) is defending his seat and is joined by two other candidates, both of whom live in the ward.

Things are more chaotic on the Tory side where the, at the time, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Group Tony Richardson was de-selected. He is now standing as an Independent. His abrasive style meant that he won few popularity contests at West Offices. Whether villagers are warmer towards him remains to be seen. There is also one other Independent on the ballot paper (Neil Wyatt) who also contested the seat in 2015 but without, at that time, seriously inconveniencing the vote counters.

The Tories have parachuted two new candidates into the ward. Neither claim to live in the area. One (Joe Pattinson) last surfaced as a by election candidate in the Holgate ward a couple of years ago. The third Tory candidate (Roy Watson-Smith) came a disappointing 5th when contesting the Haxby seat in 2015. He does at least live in the area.

The LibDems have been astute in selecting new candidates who live locally and have backed this up with a revived doorstep campaign. They will expect to regain the seats that they have lost over the years.

Prediction

3 LibDem seats

Heworth

The Heworth ward is home to 14,461 residents. Average incomes are a lower than the City average. 54% of residents own their home.  21% rent privately and 23% are social tenants. There are 1,123 Council homes in the area. 1.7% are out of work. Crime levels are slightly below average.  86.96% of residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live (York average 88.6%). 31.8% believe that they can influence decisions in their local area (City average 26.2).  Source

Elections

This area has been Labour for several years. Ward boundary changes make trend comparisons more difficult but in 2015 there was a marked drop in Labour support – mainly to the benefit of the Green Party (although they remained in third place).

This is hard left Labour territory with the existing 3 Labour Councillors – mostly moderates – being ousted.  Dafydd Williams, having been a Councillor in Plymouth and then for four years in Westfield, moved over to this ward in 2015. He is understood to be leaving the City. Barbara Boyce has moved on to contest the Fishergate Ward.

Only one candidates has any previous Council experience. Liberal Democrat Jonathan Morley was formerly the representatives for Osbaldwick. He lives in the Heworth Ward. He faces an up hill task in an area where the party’s fortunes have been in the doldrums.

The chances are that inexperienced Councillors will be returned.

Electors in the ward have a couple of novel choices. There is a Women’s Equality Party candidate, while Nigel Fenwick describes himself as the “Socialist Alternative”. If he is to the left of Momentum influenced Heworth Labour Party, then he will find little breathing room.  History suggests that fringe candidates do poorly in Council elections in York

There are still huge problems to address in this ward and the task facing the new Councillors will be challenging.  Whether the Labour candidates can live up to  their self publicity may become clear before the end of the year.

Prediction

3 Labour seats